Congratulations to this year's SAG Award winners!
Best Ensemble
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Male Actor
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Best Female Actor
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Male Actor
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Female Actor
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Best Stunt Ensemble
Wonder Woman
Here we go, folks - final Oscar nomination predictions!
Since my last thoughts in December, a ton has gone down in the awards season - Golden Globes were handed out, as were BAFTA nods and nominations from the Directors, Writers and Producers Guilds of America. Next week, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will (at last!) offer its two cents on the best of cinema in 2017 and, not long after that, BAFTA and the guilds will be announcing their winners. As a reminder, this year's Oscar ceremony falls on March 4.
So, with that said, here are my final predictions. In parentheses you will see how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my December rankings. In some cases, I have eliminated a film or performer entirely.
Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!
(PS: Per usual, I will again be hosting an Oscar winners prediction contest, with a Fandango gift card as grand prize. Keep an eye out for more details on that, after the nominations are announced.)
Best Picture
DROPPED
The Florida Project (-8)
The Disaster Artist (-4)
Best Director
DROPPED
Sean Baker, The Florida Project (-3)
Best Lead Actor
DROPPED
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (-2)
Best Lead Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
DROPPED
David Scarpa, All the Money in the World (-3)
Rian Johnson, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Best Documentary Feature
DROPPED
Cries from Syria (-8)
Unrest (-1)
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Cinematography
DROPPED
Edward Lachman, Wonderstruck (-1)
Best Costume Design
DROPPED
Michael T. Boyle, Mudbound (-3)
Stacey Battat, The Beguiled (-1)
Best Film Editing
DROPPED
Bob Ducsay, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-5)
Walter Fasano, Call Me By Your Name (-1)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
DROPPED
Paula Fleet, Mike Hill, Shane Mahan and Jordan Samuel, The Shape of Water (-9)
Sunday English, Gary English, Nicki Ledermann, Angela Levin,Gary Martori, Jerry Popolis, Rania Ribalow, Pamela S. Westmore and Nakoya Yancey, The Greatest Showman (-6)
Paul Engelen and Jon Henry Gordon, Phantom Thread (-5)
Flora Moody and Allison Sing, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-4)
Gloria Pasqua Casny and Joel Harlow, Logan (-3)
Alexis Continente, Carol Hemming, Dana Kalder, Jutta Russell, Chiara Ugolini and Wakana Yoshihara, Murder on the Orient Express (-2)
Jenny Shircore, Beauty and the Beast (-1)
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
DROPPED
"Come Alive," The Greatest Showman (-4)
"There's Something Special," Despicable Me 3 (-2)
Best Production Design
Best Sound Editing
DROPPED
Richard Hymns, The Post (-1)
Best Sound Mixing
DROPPED
Bill Bair, Will Files, Tom Lalley, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson, War for the Planet of the Apes (-5)
Gary Rydstrom,The Post (-1)
Best Visual Effects
DROPPED
Frazer Churchill, Viktor Muller, Jessica Norman and Bill Westenhofer, Wonder Woman (-6)
Berj Bannayan, Martyn Culpitt and Chas Jarrett, Logan (-5)
Vincent Cirelli, Jake Morrison, Brendan Seals, Alexis Wajsbrot and Chad Wiebe,Thor: Ragnarok (-3)
Kyle McCulloch, David Piombino, Kelly Port and Glen Pratt, Beauty and the Beast (-1)
On the heels of Oscar nominations morning - and with about a month and a half to go before that grand ceremony - here's my final hunch on how next weekend's SAG Awards will go down...
Best Ensemble
It would, despite the strengths of the pictures and performances, be flabbergasting to see Mudbound or especially The Big Sick emerge triumphant here. Instead, this should be a three-way barn burner. Lady Bird, no doubt, has heaps of support in the industry, though I hesitate to predict it when I'm not going with Ronan or Metcalf for the win in their respective categories. Get Out, on the other hand, can totally win without a victory for leading man Kaluuya. I give Three Billboards the edge, as I do have McDormand down for the win, plus the surprise Harrelson nomination seems indicative of high support for the picture among the acting wing.
Best Male Actor
Here's the closest thing to a shoo-in on the film side of the SAG Awards. If Oldman could triumph at the Golden Globes, despite publicly lambasting that body, there's scant reason to believe he won't handily prevail here (and later at BAFTA, of course). It's tough to even forecast a runner-up - prior to the sexual abuse allegations, it would have been Globe winner Franco but now Chalamet and Kaluuya probably earn more votes, with Washington still clearly dead last.
Best Female Actor
Much as I adored Dame Judi, I would concede she hasn't a shot at victory (though keep an eye on her in advance of Oscar nominations morning). Hawkins, given the lack of The Shape of Water in Ensemble, is also not likely and if Robbie couldn't triumph at the Globes, she's probably not prevailing here either. This will be a jump ball between the two Globe winners and it's hardly easy to argue for one over the other. One stat perhaps in Ronan's favor is no performer to date has earned two Best Female Actor SAG Awards - McDormand would mark the very first. I suspect, however, given how universally loved she is in the industry and among her peers (plus how well-liked Three Billboards evidently is within the Guild), McDormand will indeed achieve this feat.
Best Supporting Male Actor
The Carell nomination is a baffling one, given his sitcom-level half of Battle of the Sexes is vastly inferior to Emma Stone's more compelling scenes. He's not a factor here, nor is Jenkins (whose film failed to land in Ensemble) or Harrelson (who just hasn't been much of an awards season player). If not for Harrelson's presence, I suspect I'd be siding with Globe winner Rockwell...but could it be that Harrelson siphons off just enough Three Billboards fans from his co-star to hand Dafoe victory? I suspect it just might happen, though, given The Florida Project's lack of Ensemble nod, I'm hardly confident.
Best Supporting Female Actor
Chau doesn't have a prayer and, despite their films earning Ensemble nominations, nor do Blige or Hunter. It's a coin flip between Janney and Metcalf, as it has been all awards season. Both are beloved "actor's actors," stars of the big and small screens and stage. Janney's SAG history is a mixed bag - on one hand, she earned two Drama Actress prizes for The West Wing, which is an impressive feat. On the flip side, despite four Emmy nominations (including two wins for the role), she's never earned a nod for her current work on Mom. By the time the SAG Awards came to fruition, Roseanne, then on its seventh season, was fading from the awards circuit, so there's no Metcalf track record here to speak of. I suspect, given the immense plethora of actors she's worked alongside over the years, Janney has an ever-so-slight edge but it could totally be Metcalf, especially if voters who aren't inclined to award Lady Bird in Ensemble or Lead Actress wish to at least throw it a bone somewhere.
Oh, how I hope the Academy at last has the good sense to make Lesley Manville an Oscar nominee!
Manville, whose brilliant turn in Mike Leigh's Another Year was worthy of not a mere Oscar nomination but the outright win, is once again kicking ass and taking names, this time with a key supporting role in Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread. With a mere glance, Manville is able to seamlessly steal a scene, even against that three-time Oscar winner Daniel Day-Lewis. When Manville doesn't grace the screen, which is far too often, she is sorely missed.
Manville's performance is, I'm afraid, one of a mere few reasons to check out Anderson's latest picture, a sumptuously designed but otherwise unpleasant and uninvolving vehicle for Day-Lewis, who is surprisingly in rather stiff form.
Day-Lewis portrays a real son of a bitch, superstar dressmaker Reynolds Woodcock who, in the 1950s, is the hottest name in London fashion. Bored with his latest female companion and frustrated with work, Reynolds takes a few days to escape to the countryside. There, he becomes enchanted with Alma (Vicky Krieps), a mild-mannered, beautiful waitress who is just as enamored with him.
Alma returns to London with him, where there's no shortage of friction between she and Reynolds' sister Cyril (Manville) and, eventually, Reynolds himself. Alma soon finds herself facing the same predicament as past women in Reynolds' life - how can one make him fall in love, not merely for a fleeting moment, but for a lifetime, in a long-term relationship? Well, Alma might just have a few more tricks up her sleeve than Reynolds' earlier companions.
Phantom Thread is, on an all-too-rare occasion, a glorious sight. The picture looks gorgeous, stunningly photographed by Anderson, with striking costumes by Mark Bridges (this should be a shoo-in for that Oscar). The Jonny Greenwood score is also exquisite. And, as already mentioned, Manville is simply divine as Reynolds' loyal, truth-telling sister. Every scene with her is riveting, as is a brief sequence toward the film's center with the always-great Harriet Harris as a wealthy but profoundly unhappy client of Reynolds'.
The downfall of Phantom Thread is in the Reynolds-Alma pairing itself, a stilted, soulless relationship that just isn't the least bit compelling - I'm still trying to figure out what Anderson sees in this duo! The film's final act, which closes in on the pair and sends Cyril to the sidelines, is a combination of tedious and absurd.
Phantom Thread sports marvelous stories that could be told, whether focused on the spellbinding Cyril, the fascinating Barbara Rose (the Harris character) or even those wise old seamstresses - imagine a picture told from their points of view! Instead, we're stuck front and center with Reynolds and Alma, two insufferable, chemistry-free people who suck the life out of a film that isn't without its precious pleasures.
B-
Congratulations to this year's Directors Guild of America Award nominees!
Guillermo del Toro
The Shape of Water
(Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Unit Production Manager: J. Miles Dale
Production Manager: Dennis Chapman
First Assistant Director: Pierre Henry
Second Assistant Director: Tyler Delben
Greta Gerwig
Lady Bird
(A24)
Unit Production Managers: Lila Yacoub, Danielle Blumstein, Jamin O’Brien (New York Crew)
First Assistant Directors: Jonas Spaccarotelli, Cedric Vara (New York Crew)
Second Assistant Director: Brendan Lee, Dana Zolli (New York Crew)
Second Second Assistant Directors: Lillian Awa, Teri Barber
Martin McDonagh
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
(Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Unit Production Manager: Bergen Swanson
Assistant Unit Production Manager: Peggy Robinson
First Assistant Director: Peter Kohn
Second Assistant Director: Paula Case
Second Second Assistant Director: Spencer Taylor
Christopher Nolan
Dunkirk
(Warner Bros.)
Unit Production Managers: David Witz, Christine Raspillere (France Unit), Chris Brock (UK Unit), Nicky Tüske (Netherlands Unit)
First Assistant Directors: Nilo Otero, William Pruss (France Unit), Willem Quarles van Ufford (Netherlands Unit)
Second Assistant Director: Eric Lasko, Nicolas Baldino (France Unit), Alexis Chelli (France Unit), Clément Comet (France Unit)
Second Second Assistant Director: Alina Gatti
Jordan Peele
Get Out
(Universal Pictures)
Unit Production Managers: Marcei A. Brown, Rick A. Osako (Fairhope Unit)
First Assistant Director: Gerard DiNardi
Second Assistant Directors: Ram Paul Silbey, Marc Newland (Fairhope Unit), Jack McKenna (New York Unit)
Second Second Assistant Director: Maggie Ballard
Location Manager: Kurt Enger (New York Unit)