FINAL 2022 Oscar Winner Predictions

At last!

On the heels of an awards season that felt destined to never end, we are finally here. And, with an exception here and there, most categories remain brimming with suspense.

Among the races not so unpredictable at the 11 o'clock hour are Best Picture and Best Director, where PGA winner Everything Everywhere All at Once and DGA honorees Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert appear destined for victories.

That isn’t to say they’re unbeatable but it’s challenging at this point to even determine what/who is closest behind them. This is a contender peaking at precisely the right moment in momentum. Its lone lackluster showing was at BAFTA, where All Quiet on the Western Front was more embraced, but good luck predicting that one for Best Picture without directing or acting bids here. I’m inclined to think The Banshees of Inisherin, which has a Best Director nom and could still cobble together acting/writing wins, is the most formidable threat to Everything Everywhere.

Much more chaotic are the acting showdowns, which remain exceedingly tough to forecast.

If there’s a reasonably easy race to call, it’s Best Supporting Actor, where Ke Huy Quan has maintained a healthy front-runner status. He did fall short to Barry Keoghan at BAFTA, so don’t call Quan a shoo-in, but it would nonetheless be flabbergasting to see him fall short on the big night. Were that to happen, which it almost surely won’t, Everything Everywhere will not be winning Best Picture.

If there’s a dark horse in the field, albeit still a long shot at that, it might be Judd Hirsch, who hasn’t been much a presence this awards season but is still a beloved veteran who’s worked with countless AMPAS members.

As for Best Supporting Actress…hmm lol. I thought for sure Angela Bassett would triumph at SAG, leading to a Bassett vs. Kerry Condon barnburner that probably results in a Condon Oscar win. I did not think voters could decide between the Everything Everywhere contenders and yet, that’s exactly what happened at SAG with the Jamie Lee Curtis upset.

Now, I’m increasingly cool on Bassett’s odds - her big wins were with the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, neither of which vote on the Oscars - and I’m even a little warier on Condon’s chances. Curtis really could ride an Everything Everywhere wave to victory, should it prove powerful enough. Nonetheless, I do slightly lean toward BAFTA winner Condon, as it’s the sort of role that historically is much more up the AMPAS alley (at least when it comes to wins) than the comic work Curtis turns in.

Frankly, in a field this unsettled, the likes of Hsu and Chau cannot be entirely counted out either though, without precursor wins behind them, it’s a little tough articulating cases for them.

No easier to project are the two Lead races, with Austin Butler & Brendan Fraser and Cate Blanchett & Michelle Yeoh deadlocked in their respective fields.

The Whale’s overall underperformance in nominations, coupled with the robust showing of support for Elvis, leans me in Butler’s direction. I struggle a tad more with Best Actress, given both Everything Everywhere and TÁR have such healthy support across the board. It’s been hard to shake the feeling that, despite Everything Everywhere’s incredible awards season run and the focus on Yeoh, Blanchett continues to ring as an undeniable winner. So I’ll stick with her, especially considering AMPAS’ penchant for repeat winners in Best Actress.

Keep a close eye on Best Original Screenplay, a race that will hint at what’s to come over the rest of the night. Should Everything Everywhere triumph there, it’s almost surely going all the way. For the other contenders, namely Banshees and The Fabelmans, it is imperative they score there to have any prayer in Best Picture.

The other writing race, in Best Adapted Screenplay, feels like a pure toss-up between All Quiet on the Western Front and Women Talking. The former needs that and a virtual sweep of its crafts bids to have a shot for the top prize.

Speaking of the crafts categories, what once felt like fertile ground for Top Gun: Maverick now rings as prime opportunities for All Quiet to score wins - in fact, I don’t have Top Gun taking anything in my final predictions, though it’s awfully close in Best Film Editing and Best Sound. Watch Elvis, which could score more trophies than anticipated down the ballot. And yes, Diane Warren will again lose in Best Original Song.

So…that’s that! This is going to be an exceedingly exciting evening and anyone who can somehow correctly predict all of these categories is to be commended. See yas on the other side! :)

Best Picture

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. All Quiet on the Western Front

4. The Fabelmans

5. Elvis

6. Top Gun: Maverick

7. TÁR

8. Triangle of Sadness

9. Women Talking

10. Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Director

1. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Todd Field, TÁR

5. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

5. Ana de Armas, Blonde

Best Actor

1. Austin Butler, Elvis

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

5. Bill Nighy, Living

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. Hong Chau, The Whale

Best Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

4. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Best Original Screenplay

1. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Todd Field, TÁR

4. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans

5. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

2. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

3. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Top Gun: Maverick

4. Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

5. Kazuo Ishiguro, Living

Best Animated Feature

1. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

4. The Sea Beast

5. Turning Red

Best Animated Short Film

1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

2. My Year of Dicks

3. Ice Merchants

4. The Flying Sailor

5. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Best Documentary Feature

1. Navalny

2. Fire of Love

3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

4. All That Breathes

5. A House Made of Splinters

Best Documentary Short Film

1. The Elephant Whisperers

2. Stranger at the Gate

3. Haulout

4. How Do You Measure a Year?

5. The Martha Mitchell Effect

Best International Feature

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

2. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

3. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

4. EO (Poland)

5. Close (Belgium)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. An Irish Goodbye

2. Le pupille

3. Night Ride

4. The Red Suitcase

5. Ivalu

Best Cinematography

1. Mandy Walker, Elvis

2. James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front

3. Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR

4. Darius Khondji, Bardo

5. Roger Deakins, Empire of Light

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2. Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All At Once

3. Catherine Martin, Elvis

4. Mary Zophres, Babylon

5. Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Best Film Editing

1. Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick

3. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond‎, Elvis

4. Monika Willi, TÁR

5. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Shane Thomas, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Louise Coulston, Elvis

2. Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley, The Whale

3. Heike Merker, All Quiet on the Western Front

4. Joel Harlow, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Zoe Tahir, The Batman

Best Original Score

1. Volker Bertelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front

2. Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Justin Hurwitz, Babylon

4. John Williams, The Fabelmans

5. Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Song

1. “Naatu Naatu,” RRR

2. “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. “Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick

4. “Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5. “Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman

Best Production Design

1. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Bev Dunn, Elvis

2. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon

3. Christian M. Goldbeck, All Quiet on the Western Front

4. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water

5. Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans

Best Sound

1. Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler and Viktor Prášil, All Quiet on the Western Front

2. Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor, Top Gun: Maverick

3. David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller, Elvis

4. Gwen Whittle, Gary Summers, Mike Hedges, Chris Boyes, Tony Johnson and Julian Howarth, Avatar: The Way of Water

5. Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson and William Files, The Batman

Best Visual Effects

1. Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Markus Frank, Viktor Muller, Frank Petzold and Kamil Jafar, All Quiet on the Western Front

3. Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill and Bryan Litson, Top Gun: Maverick

4. Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang and Dan Sudick, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5. Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langland and Dominic Tuoh, The Batman

2022 SAG Award Winner Predictions

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. The Fabelmans

4. Women Talking

5. Babylon

With waning awards season momentum and no individual acting noms, it’s all but impossible to make a case for Babylon or Women Talking having a prayer here. Likewise, while Paul Dano made the cut (and, side note, should’ve done the same with AMPAS), the snubs of Michelle Williams and Judd Hirsch sadly don’t bode well for The Fabelmans’ chances of taking the top prize.

Both sporting quartets of acting bids, The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once are the overwhelming forces to be reckoned with. To date, only one film - Sideways - has taken Best Ensemble honors with a four-person cast. This, coupled with the wins I suspect are on the horizon for Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan, leans me in the direction of Everything Everywhere.

But Banshees is hardly to be underestimated and a win early in the evening for Kerry Condon and/or Barry Keoghan would bode very well for its odds of taking top honors.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

3. Viola Davis, The Woman King

4. Ana de Armas, Blonde

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Sublime as she is, Deadwyler won’t be taking this, nor will de Armas. Davis has had a remarkable run with SAG, triumphing on five out of six individual noms (three for film, two for TV), but even with that track record, it’ll be challenging for her to overcome the Oscar snub - and it doesn’t help that The Woman King is absent from Best Ensemble.

Instead, no surprise, this will be a barn burner between the two front-runners. My gut says Blanchett ultimately takes home her third career Oscar but not before ever-so-narrowly falling short to Yeoh here.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

2. Austin Butler, Elvis

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Adam Sandler, Hustle

5. Bill Nighy, Living

With Best Actress, for all intents and purposes, having proven a two-person race, Best Actor has more felt like an exciting three-way affair - that is until BAFTA, where Farrell, seemingly well-positioned for victory, fell short to Butler, even with Bashees co-stars Condon and Keoghan triumphing in the Supporting fields. It was a true gut punch of a loss, leaving Farrell with increasingly long odds of prevailing at SAG and/or the Oscars and establishing this race as more of a one-on-one showdown.

Had Elvis somehow made the Best Ensemble cut, I’d be inclined to predict Butler. Alas, I do give the slight edge to Fraser over the newcomer. He’s long been in the business, worked with countless SAG members and is seen as sorely due for recognition. It’s a close call, however, and you can feel momentum building, to an extent, for Butler and his film. My hunch - Fraser at SAG, Butler at the Oscars.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Hong Chau, The Whale

5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Despite Bassett’s victories with the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, it’s been hard to shake the feeling that an Oscar win for this turn, marvelous as it is, may prove elusive. The BAFTA win for Condon, while not a surprise, leaves me all the more convinced this may not be Bassett’s year.

That said…I do think she’s still taking SAG! They strike me as a more populist and favorable voting body to Bassett than the likes of the HFPA and Critics Choice crowd, both of which embraced her. Condon could keep the momentum going and triumph - and if she does, she’s winning the Oscar - but odds remain strong that Bassett takes this.

If there’s a dark horse, it’s perhaps Curtis, who’s worked with everyone in the industry and is running one hell of a spirited campaign.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

5. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Until BAFTA, this was a race largely devoid of suspense, with Quan poised to steamroll to Oscar glory. While so-called “vote-splitting” is, more often than not, not a real factor in awards races, it nonetheless seemed challenging for one of the Banshees gents to triumph over the other…and yet that’s precisely what happened as the Brits provided Keoghan an upset victory.

With SAG, Quan still strikes me as the favorite - frankly, if he falls short, Everything Everywhere probably isn’t winning anything here and that’s awfully tough to fathom - but a clear alternative to the front-runner has finally emerged and the Oscar race is destined to be a close one.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2. Top Gun: Maverick

3. The Woman King

4. Avatar: The Way of Water

5. The Batman

Four of the past five years have seen a superhero film triumph in this category. Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick may have the Best Picture noms but that didn’t mean much for the likes of past nominees/losers Dune, Dunkirk and Ford v Ferrari, among others. Bank on Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, especially if Bassett’s winning.

FINAL 2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions

We’re so close!

Usually, I’d have heaps to say in terms of the rhymes and reasons behind my final Oscar nom hunches. Alas, I just started a new job and haven’t quite had the time to delve into a detailed analysis. I have, however, had just enough time to compile one final set of nomination predictions for the season.

Below you’ll find ‘em, including, per usual, how many spots a contender has moved up or down since my last predictions. In a handful of cases, some wannabe nominees have fallen out of the rankings altogether, though most categories, especially among the crafts, haven’t seen significant movement over the past month.

Enjoy - and don’t you dare underestimate the power of Diane Warren and J. Ralph in Best Original Song!

Best Picture

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (+2)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

3. The Fabelmans (-2)

4. Elvis (+1)

5. Top Gun: Maverick (-1)

6. TÁR (+1)

7. The Whale (+5)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)

10. Babylon (-)
    —

11. Aftersun (NEW)

12. Women Talking (-6)

13. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

14. RRR (-)

15. Triangle of Sadness (-)

DROPPED
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-5)

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+4)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-1)

4. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)

5. Todd Field, TÁR (-2)
   —

6. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (+1)

7. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (NEW)

8. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (-4)

9. S. S. Rajamouli, RRR (-)

10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (-2)

DROPPED
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (-1)

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR (-)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (-)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (+1)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (-1)
   —

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (-)

7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (NEW)

8. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (+1)

9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (-2)

10. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (NEW)

DROPPED
Rooney Mara, Women Talking (-3)
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (-1)

Best Actor

1. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (-)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (+1)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (-1)

5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (-)
   —

6. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (+2)

7. Adam Sandler, Hustle (+3)

8. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (-1)

9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (NEW)

10. Adam Driver, White Noise (-4)

DROPPED
Diego Calva, Babylon (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

2. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+2)

3. Hong Chau, The Whale (+4)

4. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+2)

5. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (-3)
   —

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)

7. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (-4)

8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (-)

9. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

10. Nina Hoss, TÁR (-)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (+1)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (-1)
   —

6. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (+1)

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (-1)

8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (-)

9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (NEW)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (-1)

DROPPED
Mark Rylance, Bones & All (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

2. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans (-)

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)

4. Todd Field, TÁR (-1)

5. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun (+1)
   —

6. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (-1)

7. Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce, Jeremy Done, Elvis (+1)

8. Seth Reiss and Will Tracy, The Menu (NEW)

9. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-2)

10. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-1)

DROPPED
Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly and Keith Beauchamp, Till (-4)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (-)

2. Samuel D. Hunter, The Whale (+1)

3. Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (+4)

4. Kazuo Ishiguro, Living (-)

5. Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-3)
   —

6. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said (-)

7. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (-2)

8. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

9. Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+1)

10. David Kajganich, Bones & All (-1)

Best Animated Feature

1. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-)

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on (-)

3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (-)

4. Wendell & Wild (-)

5. Turning Red (-)
   —

6. My Father’s Dragon (-)

7. Inu-Oh (-)

8. The Bad Guys (-)

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (-)

10. Strange World (-)

Best Animated Short Film

1. More Than I Want to Remember (-)

2. The Flying Sailor (-)

3. Save Ralph (-)

4. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (-)

5. It’s Nice in Here (-)
   —

6. The Garbage Man (-)

7. New Moon (-)

8. My Year of Dicks (-)

9. Ice Merchants (-)

10. Black Slide (-)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Descendant (-)

2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (-)

3. Fire of Love (-)

4. The Territory (-)

5. All That Breathes (-)
   —

6. Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (-)

7. Moonage Daydream (-)

8. The Janes (-)

9. Navalny (-)

10. Retrograde (-)

Best Documentary Short Film

1. The Elephant Whisperers (-)

2. Haulout (-)

3. Nuisance Bear (-)

4. The Flagmakers (-)

5. As Far as They Can Run (-)
   —

6. American Justice on Trial: People v. Newton (-)

7. Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices from a Plantation Prison (-)

8. Shut Up and Paint (-)

9. Holding Moses (-)

10. Stranger at the Gate (-)

Best International Feature

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) (-)

2. Decision to Leave (South Korea) (-)

3. Bardo (Mexico) (-)

4. Argentina, 1985 (+1)

5. Saint Omer (France) (+1)
   —

6. Corsage (Austria) (+1)

7. Close (Belgium) (-3)

8. Holy Spider (Denmark) (-)

9. The Quiet Girl (Ireland) (-)

10. Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden) (-)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. An Irish Goodbye (-)

2. Night Ride (-)

3. Nakam (-)

4. The Red Suitcase (-)

5. Tula (-)
   —

6. Ivalu (-)

7. Warsha (-)

8. All in Favor (-)

9. Le Pupille (-)

10. The Treatment (-)

Best Cinematography

1. Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick (+2)

2. Russell Carpenter, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

3. James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)

4. Janusz Kaminski, The Fabelmans (-3)

5. Roger Deakins, Empire of Light (-)
   —

6. Mandy Walker, Elvis (-)

7. Ben Davis, The Banshees of Inisherin (+2)

8. Greig Fraser, The Batman (NEW)

9. Darius Khondji, Bardo (NEW)

10. Linus Sandgren, Babylon (-3)

DROPPED
Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR (-3)
Robert Richardson, Emancipation (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

2. Mary Zophres, Babylon (-)

3. Catherine Martin, Elvis (-)

4. Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All At Once (+3)

5. Monika Buttinger, Corsage (-)
   —

6. Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (-)

7. Sandy Powell, Living (-1)

8. Gersha Phillips, The Woman King (-4)

9. Mark Bridges, The Fabelmans (-1)

10. Jenny Eagan, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

Best Film Editing

1. Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

2. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond‎, Elvis (-)

3. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refouaa and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

4. Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

5. Sven Budelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)
   —

6. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, The Fabelmans (-1)

7. Monika Willi, TÁR (-)

8. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

9. Bob Ducsay, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

10. Tom Cross, Babylon (-)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Shane Thomas, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Louise Coulston, Elvis (-)

2. Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley, The Whale (+1)

3. Joel Harlow, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+1)

4. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Zoe Tahir, The Batman (-2)

5. Heba Thorisdottir and Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Babylon (-)
   —

6. Tina Roesler Kerwin and Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Blonde (+2)

7. Nana Fischer, Miho Suzuki, Jason Collins, Adruitha Lee, Lori McCoy-Bell, Cassandra L. Russek and Yvette Shelton, Amsterdam (-1)

8. Heike Merker, All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)

9. The team from Crimes of the Future (-2)

10. Ken Diaz and Andrea Bowman, Emancipation (-)

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

3. Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-)

4. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Women Talking (+1)

5. Justin Hurwitz, Babylon (+1)
   —

6. Terence Blanchard, The Woman King (-2)

7. Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

8. Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)

9. Simon Franglen, Avatar: The Way of Water (-1)

10. Nicholas Britell, She Said (-)

Best Original Song

1. “Naatu Naatu,” RRR (+3)

2. “Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick (-1)

3. “Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman (-1)

4. “Ciao Papa,” Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (+2)

5. “Dust and Ash,” The Voice of Dust and Ash (-2)
   —

6. “Stand Up,” Till (-1)

7. “Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+1)

8. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength),” Avatar: The Way of Water (-1)

9. “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

10. “Good Afternoon,” Spirited (-)

Best Production Design

1. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Bev Dunn, Elvis (-)

2. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

3. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon (+1)

4. Curt Enderle and Guy Davis, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-1)

5. Jason Kisvarday and Kelsi Ephraim, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)
   —

6. Christian M. Goldbeck, All Quiet on the Western Front (+2)

7. Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans (-1)

8. Hannah Beachler and Lisa K. Sessions, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+1)

9. Akin McKenzie, The Woman King (-2)

10. Rick Heinrichs and Elli Griff, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

Best Sound

1. Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

2. David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller, Elvis (-)

3. Gwen Whittle, Gary Summers, Mike Hedges, Chris Boyes, Tony Johnson and Julian Howarth, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

4. Brent Kiser, Andrew Twite, Stephen Nelson, Alexandra Fehrman and Ian Chase, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)

5. Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler and Viktor Prášil, All Quiet on the Western Front (-1)
   —

6. Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker, Steve Boeddeker and Brandon Proctor, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

7. Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jens Rosenlund Petersen, Moonage Daydream (+1)

8. Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson and William Files, The Batman (-1)

9. Jon Taylor, Frank Montaño, Peter Cobbin and Tavish Grade, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (-)

10. Steven Morrow, Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Andy Nelson and Ai-Ling Lee, Babylon (-)

Best Visual Effects

1. Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

2. Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill and Bryan Litson, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

3. Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang and Dan Sudick, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

4. Markus Frank, Viktor Muller, Frank Petzold and Kamil Jafar, All Quiet on the Western Front (-)

5. Jason Billington, Brian Cox and Bruce Bright, Thirteen Lives (-)
   —

6. Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langland and Dominic Tuoh, The Batman (+1)

7. David Vickery, Alex Wuttke, Paul Corbould and Neal Scanlan, Jurassic World: Dominion (+3)

8. Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, Sreejith Venugopalan and Scott R. Fisher, Nope (-2)

9. Christian Manz, Benjamin Loch, Stephane Naze and Alistair Williams, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (-)

10. Janek Sirrs, Theo Bialek, Erik Winquist and Chris Corbould, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (-2)

2022 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

The SAG Awards are truly the awards season crème de la crème, often having the finest taste among precursors, with a penchant for throwing sorely needed curveballs to rattle the pre-Oscar landscape.

This is, after all, the same inspired body that preferred The Birdcage over The English Patient in Best Ensemble; honored the amazing likes of Stockard Channing in Smoke and Cloris Leachman in Spanglish when few others took notice; and provided crucial momentum to Parasite in its bid for awards season glory (ditto CODA last year).

Will SAG have more surprises in store this time around? Let’s dive into each category.

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. The Fabelmans

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

5. The Woman King
   —

6. Women Talking

7. Babylon

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

9. Top Gun: Maverick

10. Elvis

The current Best Picture front-runners - Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, and The Fabelmans - should be reasonably safe here. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, with its sprawling, starry ensemble and rave reviews, also strikes me as a likely bet, though I hesitate a little, given the first Knives Out didn’t make the SAG cut. That final slot could go a bunch of different ways - and beyond these half-dozen contenders, All Quiet on the Western Front, RRR, and Triangle of Sadness can’t be counted out. I lean ever-so-slightly toward The Woman King over Women Talking and Babylon. Actors adore Viola Davis (see more below) and her ensembles tend to fare well here too, with The Help triumphing and Doubt, Fences, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom scoring nominations.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

3. Viola Davis, The Woman King

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

5. Aubrey Plaza, Emily the Criminal
   —

6. Margot Robbie, Babylon

7. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

8. Ana de Armas, Blonde

9. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

10. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

The Oscar favorites, Yeoh and Blanchett, are sure to score SAG noms - as is Davis, a six-time winner here (five individual wins, three in film and two TV, plus Ensemble for The Help). Williams may not be quite as safe (she did miss at SAG for Blue Valentine) but, odds are, she’s making the cut here too. Here’s another jump ball, however, for that fifth slot. The safest bet is to go with Robbie or Deadwyler but I’m inclined to lean toward a true jaw-dropper - Aubrey Plaza, who surfaced early on in the awards season with bids at the Gothams and Indie Spirits. Not to be overlooked, Emily the Criminal recently hit Netflix, just as SAG voters are taking to their ballots, and Plaza’s got some extra buzz (and another potential SAG nom) for her acclaimed turn on The White Lotus: Sicily. This may not come to fruition but, considering this is a body that’s given Best Actress noms to the long-shot likes of Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back), Hilary Swank (Conviction,) and Gena Rowlands (Unhook the Stars), it’s a plenty plausible appearance.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

3. Austin Butler, Elvis

4. Bill Nighy, Living

5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
   —

6. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

7. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

8. Adam Sandler, Hustle

9. Adam Driver, White Noise

10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Not to keep repeating myself but…watch that last slot. Farrell, Fraser, and Butler will cruise to nominations here, as should Nighy, whose film is backed by the awards season masters at Sony Pictures Classics. It’s challenging to forecast who joins them when the front-runners, Farrell and Fraser in particular, have so dominated the Best Actor conversation and precursors thus far. He may have missed at the Globes (though, frankly, who gives a shit) but Mescal has otherwise had a fairly healthy run, not winning much of note but often showing up as a critics’ award nominee, including with Critics’ Choice. And A24 is running a robust campaign for him, though they’re doing the same for Pope, who missed at Critics’ Choice but did land at the Globes. My hunch is the slot does ultimately go to one of the A24 gents, though Fiennes or Sandler could sneak in there as a surprise. I don’t see Cruise surfacing here, though an Oscar nom remains in the cards.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

5. Carey Mulligan, She Said
   —

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

8. Keke Palmer, Nope

9. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

10. Hong Chau, The Whale

Watch that fifth slot. And fourth. And third. Actually, just about anything could happen in this race, though Condon should be a safe bet. Bassett and/or Curtis may miss the Oscar cut but they’re true actor’s actors and have surfaced at SAG before (Bassett for Ruby’s Bucket of Blood & Betty and Coretta, Curtis for True Lies). Monáe has scored MVP notices (and a Critics’ Choice bid) for Glass Onion, a film very much in contention for Best Ensemble honors; Mulligan’s earned raves (and a Globe nom) for She Said, a contender that has somewhat dwindled in momentum but hardly disappeared; Hsu has a Critics’ Choice nom and plethora of praise for a picture that only continues to sky-rocket in momentum…there are strong, valid cases to make for all of these contenders and more. My gut says this quintet but it could just as easily be a combo of Condon, Bassett, Hsu, Buckley, and Chau or perhaps a fivesome of Condon, Curtis, Monae, Palmer, and Foy. It’s a category blissfully brimming with suspense. Intriguing, if a tad less unpredictable, is the landscape over in…

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
   —

6. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

7. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon

9. Mark Rylance, Bones & All

10. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

This category is increasingly giving me 1949 Best Supporting Actress vibes. That was a lineup that saw two films (Come to the Stable and Pinky) score noms for a pair of their performers (Celeste Holm & Elsa Lanchester and Ethel Barrymore & Ethel Waters), only for the fifth contender (Mercedes McCambridge in All the King’s Men) to prevail, and perhaps comfortably at that. That said, this quintet is hardly locked in, with only Quan and Gleeson ringing as true shoo-ins. Redmayne, who surfaced at the Globes, could prove a Jared Leto in The Little Things-level contender, and Henry, who’s scored some career-best notices and appearances at critics’ awards, continues to be in the conversation. I can fathom a scenario where Redmayne edges out Keoghan here, only for the latter to still triumph on Oscar noms morning…but I’ll stick with the latter making the cut at both.

2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions (December)

Time for an update! :)

Since my last set of Oscar nom predictions in November, we’ve seen a plethora of precursor action, including Critics Choice and Golden Globe nominations, plus an array of critics’ awards. It’s been a month of especially robust momentum for Everything Everywhere All at Once which, thus far at least, has had a field day with the precursors.

More meaningful than those prizes, however, was the release of the Oscar shortlists among 10 categories, including Best Makeup & Hairstyling, Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Sound, Best Visual Effects, Best Documentary Feature, Best International Feature, Best Animated Short Film, Best Documentary Short Film, and Best Live Action Short Film.

And while Everything Everywhere All at Once did surface among three shortlists (Score, Song and Sound), it was All Quiet on the Western Front and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever that really steamrolled, surfacing in all five eligible categories. While neither of these films, unlike Everything Everywhere All at Once, is to be mistaken as a threat for say, the Best Picture win, both are very much in the running for nominations in the top category, plus an assortment of crafts recognition.

Alongside Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans remain the most daunting awards season forces overall, destined to feast on nominations morning, with Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick also still on track for heaps of recognition. Perhaps dwindling a bit are the likes of Babylon, which has emerged one of the season’s most polarizing contenders, and The Whale, also divisive and increasingly looking like a long shot beyond Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Makeup & Hairstyling.

There’s no shortage of suspense across the bulk of categories. Only Martin McDonagh and Steven Spielberg, for instance, strike me as close to safe for Best Director noms. And while the acting fields have their commanding contenders, like Cate Blanchett and Colin Farrell, there are few true shoo-ins. The supporting fields are especially tough to nail down beyond Kerry Condon, Ke Huy Quan, and Brendan Gleeson. (Even with their precursors love so far, I wonder if AMPAS will really go for Angela Bassett and/or Jamie Lee Curtis.)

Down the ballot, the crafts, no doubt, shall be dominated by the likes of Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick, with Babylon perhaps booming or busting - it’s as easy to fathom it surfacing in eight categories overall as it is three. And if you’re not predicting Diane Warren and J. Ralph for their latest Best Original Song appearances, you haven’t been paying attention to that category’s history.

All that said, below are my updated Oscar nom predictions for the month of December, including how many spots a contender has moved up or down since my November hunches. For the first time, I’m including all of the shorts. I’ll do one final revision on these next month, once the Guilds and BAFTA have had their say.

Happy holidays! :)

Best Picture

1. The Fabelmans (-)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (+1)

5. Elvis (+2)

6. Women Talking (-2)

7. TÁR (+4)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

9. Babylon (-3)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (NEW)
    —

11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (NEW)

12. The Whale (-3)

13. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

14. RRR (NEW)

15. Triangle of Sadness (-1)

DROPPED
Till (-6)
She Said (-4)
Decision to Leave (-1)

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

3. Todd Field, TÁR (+4)

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (-1)

5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (NEW)
   —

6. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+4)

7. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (NEW)

8. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (NEW)

9. S. S. Rajamouli, RRR (NEW)

10. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (-5)

DROPPED
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-7)
Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (-5)
Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-3)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Bardo (-2)

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR (-)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (+1)

4. Margot Robbie, Babylon (+2)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (-2)
   —

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (+1)

7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (-2)

8. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (-)

9. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (NEW)

10. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (-)

DROPPED
Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (-2)

Best Actor

1. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (-1)

3. Bill Nighy, Living (-)

4. Austin Butler, Elvis (-)

5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (+4)
   —

6. Adam Driver, White Noise (-1)

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (-1)

8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (-1)

9. Diego Calva, Babylon (+1)

10. Adam Sandler, Hustle (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (+2)

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (-1)

3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (+3)

4. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+5)

5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+3)
   —

6. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+4)

7. Hong Chau, The Whale (-5)

8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (-1)

9. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (NEW)

10. Nina Hoss, TÁR (-6)

DROPPED
Claire Foy, Women Talking (-6)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (-1)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (+2)

4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (-1)

5. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (+1)
   —

6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (+1)

7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (-)

8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (-4)

9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (NEW)

10. Mark Rylance, Bones & All (NEW)

DROPPED
Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (-6)
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (-5)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)

2. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans (-1)

3. Todd Field, TÁR (+4)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)

5. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (-1)
   —

6. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun (+2)

7. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-2)

8. Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell, Craig Pearce, Jeremy Done, Elvis (NEW)

9. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-)

10. Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly and Keith Beauchamp, Till (-4)

DROPPED
Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (-)

2. Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (+3)

3. Samuel D. Hunter, The Whale (-)

4. Kazuo Ishiguro, Living (-)

5. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (-3)
   —

6. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said (-)

7. Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (+2)

8. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Top Gun: Maverick (-1)

9. David Kajganich, Bones & All (+1)

10. Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

Best Animated Feature

1. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-)

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on (+2)

3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (+4)

4. Wendell & Wild (+1)

5. Turning Red (-3)
   —

6. My Father’s Dragon (+3)

7. Inu-Oh (NEW)

8. The Bad Guys (-2)

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (-1)

10. Strange World (-7)

DROPPED
The Sea Beast (-3)

Best Animated Short Film

1. More Than I Want to Remember

2. The Flying Sailor

3. Save Ralph

4. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

5. It’s Nice in Here
   —

6. The Garbage Man

7. New Moon

8. My Year of Dicks

9. Ice Merchants

10. Black Slide

Best Documentary Feature

1. Descendant (-)

2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (-)

3. Fire of Love (+1)

4. The Territory (+2)

5. All That Breathes (NEW)
   —

6. Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (NEW)

7. Moonage Daydream (NEW)

8. The Janes (NEW)

9. Navalny (-1)

10. Retrograde (NEW)

DROPPED
Good Night Oppy (-8)
Turn Every Page (-6)
Black Ice (-4)
Sr. (-2)
Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (-1)

Best Documentary Short Film

1. The Elephant Whisperers

2. Haulout

3. Nuisance Bear

4. The Flagmakers

5. As Far as They Can Run
   —

6. American Justice on Trial: People v. Newton

7. Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices from a Plantation Prison

8. Shut Up and Paint

9. Holding Moses

10. Stranger at the Gate

Best International Feature

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) (-)

2. Decision to Leave (South Korea) (-)

3. Bardo (Mexico) (-)

4. Close (Belgium) (+1)

5. Argentina, 1985 (NEW)
   —

6. Saint Omer (France) (-2)

7. Corsage (Austria) (-)

8. Holy Spider (Denmark) (-)

9. The Quiet Girl (Ireland) (NEW)

10. Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden) (-1)

DROPPED
Klondike (Ukraine) (-6)
Cinema Sabaya (Israel) (-1)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. An Irish Goodbye

2. Night Ride

3. Nakam

4. The Red Suitcase

5. Tula
   —

6. Ivalu

7. Warsha

8. All in Favor

9. Le Pupille

10. The Treatment

Best Cinematography

1. Janusz Kaminski, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Russell Carpenter, Avatar: The Way of Water (+1)

3. Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick (+5)

4. James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)

5. Roger Deakins, Empire of Light (-3)
   —

6. Mandy Walker, Elvis (-1)

7. Linus Sandgren, Babylon (-3)

8. Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR (NEW)

9. Ben Davis, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

10. Robert Richardson, Emancipation (-)

DROPPED
Darius Khondji, Bardo (-4)

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

2. Mary Zophres, Babylon (-)

3. Catherine Martin, Elvis (-)

4. Gersha Phillips, The Woman King (-)

5. Monika Buttinger, Corsage (-)
   —

6. Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (-)

7. Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All At Once (-)

8. Mark Bridges, The Fabelmans (+1)

9. Sandy Powell, Living (-1)

10. Jenny Eagan, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (NEW)

DROPPED
Jennifer Johnson, Blonde (-1)

Best Film Editing

1. Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

2. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond‎, Elvis (+2)

3. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refouaa and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: The Way of Water (+2)

4. Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)

5. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, The Fabelmans (-3)
   —

6. Sven Budelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front (+2)

7. Monika Willi, TÁR (-)

8. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin (-2)

9. Bob Ducsay, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (NEW)

10. Tom Cross, Babylon (-)

DROPPED
Michael P. Shawver, Kelley Dixon and Jennifer Lame, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-2)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Shane Thomas, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Louise Coulston, Elvis (+1)

2. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Zoe Tahir, The Batman (+1)

3. Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley, The Whale (-2)

4. Joel Harlow, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+2)

5. Heba Thorisdottir and Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Babylon (-1)
   —

6. The team from Amsterdam (+4)

7. The team from Crimes of the Future (NEW)

8. Tina Roesler Kerwin and Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Blonde (-)

9. Heike Merker, All Quiet on the Western Front (NEW)

10. Ken Diaz and Andrea Bowman, Emancipation (NEW)

DROPPED
Babalwa Mtshiselwa, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Jamika Wilson and Louisa V. Anthony, The Woman King (-6)
Maralyn Sherman, Carmel Jackson and Stefania Pellegrini, The Northman (-4)
Michelle Chung and Anissa Salazar, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-2)

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin (+3)

3. Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (+1)

4. Terence Blanchard, The Woman King (+3)

5. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Women Talking (+3)
   —

6. Justin Hurwitz, Babylon (-3)

7. Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (NEW)

8. Simon Franglen, Avatar: The Way of Water (+2)

9. Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

10. Nicholas Britell, She Said (NEW)

DROPPED
Hildur Guðnadóttir, TÁR (-9)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Empire of Light (-5)

Best Original Song

1. “Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick (-)

2. “Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman (-)

3. “Dust and Ash,” The Voice of Dust and Ash (-)

4. “Naatu Naatu,” RRR (+1)

5. “Stand Up,” Till (-1)
   —

6. “Ciao Papa,” Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-)

7. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength),” Avatar: The Way of Water (NEW)

8. “Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

9. “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)

10. “Good Afternoon,” Spirited (NEW)

DROPPED
“Nobody Like U,” Turning Red (-4)
“At the Automat,” The Automat (-2)

Best Production Design

1. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Bev Dunn, Elvis (-)

2. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

3. Curt Enderle and Guy Davis, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-)

4. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon (-)

5. Jason Kisvarday and Kelsi Ephraim, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)
   —

6. Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans (-1)

7. Akin McKenzie, The Woman King (-)

8. Christian M. Goldbeck, All Quiet on the Western Front (+2)

9. Hannah Beachler and Lisa K. Sessions, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

10. Rick Heinrichs and Elli Griff, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (NEW)

DROPPED
Eugenio Caballero, Bardo (-3)

Best Sound

1. Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

2. David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller, Elvis (-)

3. Gwen Whittle, Gary Summers, Mike Hedges, Chris Boyes, Tony Johnson and Julian Howarth, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

4. Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler and Viktor Prášil, All Quiet on the Western Front (+2)

5. Brent Kiser, Andrew Twite, Stephen Nelson, Alexandra Fehrman and Ian Chase, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)
   —

6. Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker, Steve Boeddeker and Brandon Proctor, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+2)

7. Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson and William Files, The Batman (+2)

8. The team from Moonage Daydream (NEW)

9. The team from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (NEW)

10. Steven Morrow, Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Andy Nelson and Ai-Ling Lee, Babylon (-)

DROPPED
Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Chris Burdon, William Miller and Paul “Salty” Brincat, Thirteen Lives (-6)
Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Ronald Judkins, The Fabelmans (-4)

Best Visual Effects

1. Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

2. Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill and Bryan Litson, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

3. Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang and Dan Sudick, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+2)

4. Markus Frank, Viktor Muller, Frank Petzold and Kamil Jafar, All Quiet on the Western Front (NEW)

5. Jason Billington, Brian Cox and Bruce Bright, Thirteen Lives (NEW)
   —

6. Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, Sreejith Venugopalan and Scott R. Fisher, Nope (+4)

7. Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langland and Dominic Tuoh, The Batman (+1)

8. Janek Sirrs, Theo Bialek, Erik Winquist and Chris Corbould, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (+1)

9. Christian Manz, Benjamin Loch, Stephane Naze and Alistair Williams, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (NEW)

10. David Vickery, Alex Wuttke, Paul Corbould and Neal Scanlan, Jurassic World: Dominion (NEW)

DROPPED
Aaron Weintraub, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (-8)
Zak Stoltz, Ethan Feldbau, Benjamin Brewer and Jeff Desom, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-6)
V. Srinivas Mohan, RRR (-5)
Ivan Busquets, Abishek Nair, Marko Chulev and Steven Nichols, Good Night Oppy (-4)