2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions (November)

Hey everybody, just checking in. :)

The past month, since my October set of Oscar predictions, has not exactly seen seismic shifts across this year’s races. Gotham Award nominations aside, we’ve yet to see much in the way of precursors, with Independent Spirit Awards noms on the horizon later this month and then a plethora of honors, including Golden Globe nominations and an array of critics’ prizes, coming in December.

We have, at least, seemingly solidified this season’s category placements in the acting races. As expected, Margot Robbie will score a Lead push for Babylon, with Diego Calva and Brad Pitt on the hunt for Lead and Supporting noms, respectively. More surprising (or not, given the constant category fraud we’re treated to), Zoe Kazan and Carey Mulligan will go their separate ways for She Said, the former in Lead, the latter (inexplicably) in Supporting.

Speaking of Babylon and She Said, both contenders finally screened since my last predictions - and not to unanimous raves. For sure, these pictures are in play in a plethora of categories, but you’ll see both contenders tumble a bit in the rankings below. Babylon looks poised to be among the year’s more polarizing awards season players, though it’s tough to fathom it not having a field day in at least the crafts categories. As for She Said, it’s seen a critical reception just positive enough to maybe land in Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay…but could just as easily be totally MIA on Oscar noms morning.

While I’m on the topic of films that’ve dipped a bit in my rankings, there’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, a contender that, like its predecessor, has proven a commanding box office success. Critically, however, the reception hasn’t been as robust as with the first, so it’s plausible to see it merely proving a force in the craft categories this time around. That’s more than I can say for Armageddon Time, which also hit theaters this past month but to lukewarm critical success and nightmarish box office receipts.

If there’s a contender I’m increasingly high on, it’s Till, which hasn’t surfaced in most pundits’ Best Picture predictions - and I can’t say I understand why. Reviews have been fantastic, not only for leading lady Danielle Deadwyler but also the film itself, and its box office has been no worse than that for The Banshees of Inisherin and TÁR, films overwhelmingly expected to score heaps of recognition. And it could score slots in Best Original Screenplay and Best Original Song. Couple those with a likely Best Actress bid and it’s reasonable to fathom this timely, powerful film grab a spot in the top category.

All that said, below are my updated Oscar nom predictions for the month of November, including how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my October set of hunches. I’ll do another revision on these sometime next month, likely after some of the shortlists have surfaced.

See ya! ;)

Best Picture

1. The Fabelmans (-)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)

4. Women Talking (+2)

5. Top Gun: Maverick (-)

6. Babylon (-5)

7. Elvis (+1)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

9. The Whale (+1)

10. Till (+4)
    —

11. TÁR (+1)

12. She Said (-3)

13. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-3)

14. Triangle of Sadness (-1)

15. Decision to Leave (-)

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (+3)

3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (+5)

4. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-)

5. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (-2)
   —

6. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (-)

7. Todd Field, TÁR (-)

8. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-6)

9. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Bardo (NEW)

10. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)

DROPPED
Maria Schrader, She Said (-1)

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR (-)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (+1)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (-1)

5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (-)
   —

6. Margot Robbie, Babylon (+1)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (-1)

8. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (NEW)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (+1)

10. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (-1)

DROPPED
Carey Mulligan, She Said (-4)

Best Actor

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (-)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)

3. Bill Nighy, Living (+1)

4. Austin Butler, Elvis (-2)

5. Adam Driver, White Noise (+1)
   —

6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (+3)

7. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (+3)

8. Adam Sandler, Hustle (NEW)

9. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (NEW)

10. Diego Calva, Babylon (-2)

DROPPED
Hugh Jackman, The Son (-6)
Song Kang-ho, Broker (-4)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (-)

2. Hong Chau, The Whale (-)

3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)

4. Nina Hoss, TÁR (NEW)

5. Claire Foy, Women Talking (+2)
   —

6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (-)

7. Carey Mulligan, She Said (NEW)

8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (NEW)

9. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (NEW)

DROPPED
Jean Smart, Babylon (-8)
Samantha Morton, She Said (-6)
Sadie Sink, The Whale (-3)
Laura Dern, The Son (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

2. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+3)

3. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (-1)

4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (+2)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (+2)
   —

6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (+3)

7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (NEW)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (-)

9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (-6)

10. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (-5)

DROPPED
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+4)

4. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (-1)

5. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-1)
   —

6. Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly and Keith Beauchamp, Till (+1)

7. Todd Field, TÁR (+1)

8. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun (+1)

9. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-4)

10. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (-)

DROPPED
James Gray, Armageddon Time (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (-)

2. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (-)

3. Samuel D. Hunter, The Whale (+3)

4. Kazuo Ishiguro, Living (-)

5. Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-2)
   —

6. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said (-1)

7. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Top Gun: Maverick (+2)

8. Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (+2)

9. Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-1)

10. David Kajganich, Bones and All (NEW)

Best Animated Feature

1. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (+1)

2. Turning Red (-1)

3. Strange World (-)

4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on (-)

5. Wendell & Wild (+1)
   —

6. The Bad Guys (-1)

7. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (+1)

8. Minions: The Rise of Gru (+1)

9. My Father’s Dragon (+1)

10. The Sea Beast (-3)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Descendant (-)

2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (+7)

3. Good Night Oppy (-)

4. Fire of Love (-2)

5. Turn Every Page (NEW)
   —

6. The Territory (-2)

7. Black Ice (-2)

8. Navalny (-1)

9. Sr. (+1)

10. Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (NEW)

DROPPED
Aftershock (-5)
Retrograde (-3)

Best International Feature

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) (+1)

2. Decision to Leave (Korea) (-1)

3. Bardo (Mexico) (-)

4. Saint Omer (France) (+5)

5. Klondike (Ukraine) (-1)
   —

6. Close (Belgium) (-1)

7. Corsage (Austria) (+3)

8. Holy Spider (Denmark) (-2)

9. Boy from Heaven (Sweden) (-2)

10. Cinema Sabaya (Israel) (-2)

Best Cinematography

1. Janusz Kaminski, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Roger Deakins, Empire of Light (-)

3. Russell Carpenter, Avatar: The Way of Water (+1)

4. Linus Sandgren, Babylon (-1)

5. James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front (-)
   —

6. Mandy Walker, Elvis (-)

7. Darius Khondji, Bardo (+1)

8. Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick (-1)

9. Ben Davis, The Banshees of Inisherin (NEW)

10. Robert Richardson, Emancipation (NEW)

DROPPED
Chayse Irvin, Blonde (-2)
Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

2. Mary Zophres, Babylon (-)

3. Catherine Martin, Elvis (-)

4. Gersha Phillips, The Woman King (-)

5. Monika Buttinger, Corsage (-)
   —

6. Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (-)

7. Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All At Once (-)

8. Sandy Powell, Living (NEW)

9. Mark Bridges, The Fabelmans (-1)

10. Jennifer Johnson, Blonde (-1)

DROPPED
Oliver Garcia, Chevalier (-1)

Best Film Editing

1. Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

2. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, The Fabelmans (+1)

3. Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)

4. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond‎, Elvis (+2)

5. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refouaa and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)
   —

6. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin (NEW)

7. Monika Willi, TÁR (-)

8. Sven Budelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front (+1)

9. Michael P. Shawver, Kelley Dixon and Jennifer Lame, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-1)

10. Tom Cross, Babylon (-4)

DROPPED
Bob Ducsay, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. The team from The Whale (-)

2. Shane Thomas, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Louise Coulston, Elvis (-)

3. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Zoe Tahir, The Batman (+1)

4. The team from Babylon (-1)

5. Babalwa Mtshiselwa, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Jamika Wilson and Louisa V. Anthony, The Woman King (+1)
   —

6. Joel Harlow, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-1)

7. The team from The Northman (+1)

8. Tina Roesler Kerwin and Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Blonde (-1)

9. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

10. The team from Amsterdam (-)

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Hildur Guðnadóttir, TÁR (-)

3. Justin Hurwitz, Babylon (-)

4. Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (+1)

5. Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin (+1)
   —

6. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Empire of Light (-2)

7. Terence Blanchard, The Woman King (+1)

8. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Women Talking (NEW)

9. Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

10. Simon Franglen, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

DROPPED
Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-4)

Best Original Song

1. “Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick (-)

2. “Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman (-)

3. “Dust and Ash,” The Voice of Dust and Ash (-)

4. “Stand Up,” Till (NEW)

5. “Naatu Naatu,” RRR (-1)
   —

6. “Ciao Papa,” Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (NEW)

7. “Nobody Like U,” Turning Red (-1)

8. “Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (NEW)

9. “At the Automat,” The Automat (-1)

10. “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once (-5)

DROPPED
“(You Made It Feel Like) Home,” Bones and All (-4)
“New Body Rhumba,” White Noise (-2)
“Carolina,” Where the Crawdads Sing (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Beverley Dunn, Elvis (-)

2. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water (+1)

3. Curt Enderle and Guy Davis, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (NEW)

4. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon (-2)

5. Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans (-1)
   —

6. Jason Kisvarday and Kelsi Ephraim, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

7. Akin McKenzie, The Woman King (+3)

8. Eugenio Caballero, Bardo (-)

9. Hannah Beachler and Lisa K. Sessions, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-4)

10. Christian M. Goldbeck, All Quiet on the Western Front (-1)

DROPPED
Rick Heinrichs, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-4)

Best Sound

1. Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

2. David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller, Elvis (-)

3. Gwen Whittle, Gary Summers, Mike Hedges, Chris Boyes, Tony Johnson and Julian Howarth, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

4. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once (+2)

5. Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Chris Burdon, William Miller and Paul “Salty” Brincat, Thirteen Lives (NEW)
   —

6. The team from All Quiet on the Western Front (-1)

7. Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Ronald Judkins, The Fabelmans (NEW)

8. Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker, Steve Boeddeker and Brandon Proctor, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-4)

9. Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson and William Files, The Batman (-)

10. The team from Babylon (-3)

DROPPED
The team from TÁR (-3)
Johnnie Burn and Jose Antonio Garcia, Nope (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: The Way of Water (-)

2. Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill and Bryan Litson, Top Gun: Maverick (-)

3. Aaron Weintraub, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (+2)

4. Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang and Dan Sudick, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-1)

5. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)
   —

6. V. Srinivas Mohan, RRR (-)

7. Ivan Busquets, Abishek Nair, Marko Chulev and Steven Nichols, Good Night Oppy (+2)

8. Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langland and Dominic Tuoh, The Batman (-)

9. The team from Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (-2)

10. Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, Sreejith Venugopalan and Scott R. Fisher, Nope (-)

2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

Oh, hey!

It’s been a tad short of a month since I assembled my first Oscar nom predictions of the season. At this point, the Venice, Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals are behind us, with New York doing its thing as I compose this. A plethora of pictures have seen the light of day, with many impressing and others falling short of expectations (hi, The Son).

Key remaining question marks include Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and She Said, all of which ring of formidable contenders for Best Picture noms. And then there’s the question of category placement, with Babylon’s Margot Robbie and She Said’s Carey Mulligan & Zoe Kazan seemingly poised for Lead Actress bids but not out of the question for Supporting pushes.

Speaking of Lead vs. Supporting, a development that nicely shook things up was the surprise news that Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) would join the race in Lead Actress, as opposed to contending over in Supporting - where, pundits presume, she’d have had an easier time prevailing. And perhaps there is some truth there but you know what’s also true? Williams can undoubtedly triumph in Lead.

It remains super early in the season, no doubt, but The Fabelmans looks poised for both critical and commercial success - and Williams, about to be on her fifth Oscar bid without a win, has earned exceedingly glowing praise. Regarding category placement, there is hardly a lack of precedent when it comes to turns on the fence between Lead and Supporting emerging triumphant. Louise Fletcher (One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest), Nicole Kidman (The Hours), Frances McDormand (Fargo), Patricia Neal (Hud) - all Best Actress winners without heaps of screen time. Williams can for sure do the same.

Anyway, below are my updated Oscar nom predictions for the month of October, this time including Animated/Documentary/International Feature, plus the technical fields (I’ll hold off on the Shorts ‘til later in the season). Among the top eight, I note how many spots a contender has moved up or down since my first set of hunches. I’ll do another revision on these sometime in November.

Take care! :)

Best Picture

1. The Fabelmans (-)

2. Babylon (-)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (+2)

5. Top Gun: Maverick (+2)

6. Women Talking (+2)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (+2)

8. Elvis (+7)

9. She Said (-5)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-1)
    —

11. The Whale (-)

12. TÁR (-)

13. Triangle of Sadness (+1)

14. Till (NEW)

15. Decision to Leave (-2)

DROPPED
Armageddon Time (-11)

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-)

3. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (+4)

4. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-1)

5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)
   —

6. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (+2)

7. Todd Field, TÁR (NEW)

8. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (+1)

9. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)

10. Maria Schrader, She Said (-6)

DROPPED
James Gray, Armageddon Time (-5)

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR (-)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (NEW)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (+6)

5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (-)
   —

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (-)

7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (-4)

8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (-4)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (-1)

10. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (-3)

DROPPED
Zoe Kazan, She Said (-2)

Best Actor

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (-)

2. Austin Butler, Elvis (+1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (-1)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (+1)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (-1)
   —

6. Adam Driver, White Noise (-)

7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (+2)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (-1)

9. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (-1)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (-)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (+1)

2. Hong Chau, The Whale (+2)

3. Jean Smart, Babylon (-)

4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (+4)

5. Samantha Morton, She Said (-)
   —

6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (NEW)

7. Claire Foy, Women Talking (-1)

8. Sadie Sink, The Whale (-1)

9. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+1)

10. Laura Dern, The Son (-1)

DROPPED
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (-10)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

2. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (-)

3. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (+3)

4. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (-)

5. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)
   —

6. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (+1)

7. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (NEW)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (-5)

9. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (-1)

10. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (-1)

DROPPED
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

3. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (+4)

4. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-)

5. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-2)
   —

6. James Gray, Armageddon Time (-1)

7. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)

8. Todd Field, TÁR (+1)

9. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun (NEW)

10. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (-)

DROPPED
Billy Eichner and Nicholas Stoller, Bros (-3)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (-)

2. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (-)

3. Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

4. Kazuo Ishiguro, Living (+1)

5. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said (-1)
   —

6. Samuel D. Hunter, The Whale (-)

7. Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly and Keith Beauchamp, Till (NEW)

8. Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

9. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Top Gun: Maverick (NEW)

10. Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (-)

DROPPED
Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Son (-4)
Audrey Diwan, Marcia Romano and Anne Berest, Happening (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Turning Red

2. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

3. Strange World

4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on

5. The Bad Guys
   —

6. Wendell & Wild

7. The Sea Beast

8. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru

10. My Father’s Dragon

Best Documentary Feature

1. Descendant

2. Fire of Love

3. Good Night Oppy

4. The Territory

5. Black Ice
   —

6. Aftershock

7. Navalny

8. Retrograde

9. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

10. Sr.

Best International Feature

1. Decision to Leave (Korea)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

3. Bardo (Mexico)

4. Klondike (Ukraine)

5. Close (Belgium)
   —

6. Holy Spider (Denmark)

7. Boy from Heaven (Sweden)

8. Cinema Sabaya (Israel)

9. Saint Omer (France)

10. Corsage (Austria)

Best Cinematography

1. Janusz Kaminski, The Fabelmans

2. Roger Deakins, Empire of Light

3. Linus Sandgren, Babylon

4. Russell Carpenter, Avatar: The Way of Water

5. James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
   —

6. Mandy Walker, Elvis

7. Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick

8. Darius Khondji, Bardo

9. Chayse Irvin, Blonde

10. Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2. Mary Zophres, Babylon

3. Catherine Martin, Elvis

4. Gersha Phillips, The Woman King

5. Monika Buttinger, Corsage
   —

6. Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

7. Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All At Once

8. Mark Bridges, The Fabelmans

9. Jennifer Johnson, Blonde

10. Oliver Garcia, Chevalier

Best Film Editing

1. Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick

2. Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, The Fabelmans

4. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refouaa and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: The Way of Water

5. Tom Cross, Babylon
   —

6. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond‎, Elvis

7. Monika Willi, TÁR

8. Michael P. Shawver, Kelley Dixon and Jennifer Lame, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

9. Sven Budelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front

10. Bob Ducsay, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. The team from The Whale

2. The team from Elvis

3. The team from Babylon

4. The team from The Batman

5. The team from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
   —

6. The team from The Woman King

7. The team from Blonde

8. The team from The Northman

9. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once

10. The team from Amsterdam

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, The Fabelmans

2. Hildur Guðnadóttir, TÁR

3. Justin Hurwitz, Babylon

4. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Empire of Light

5. Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
   —

6. Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin

7. Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

8. Terence Blanchard, The Woman King

9. Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once

10. Simon Franglen, Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Original Song

1. “Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick

2. “Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman

3. “Dust and Ash,” The Voice of Dust and Ash

4. “Naatu Naatu,” RRR

5. “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once
   —

6. “Nobody Like U,” Turning Red

7. “(You Made It Feel Like) Home,” Bones and All

8. “At the Automat,” The Automat

9. “New Body Rhumba,” White Noise

10. “Carolina,” Where the Crawdads Sing

Best Production Design

1. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Beverley Dunn, Elvis

2. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon

3. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water

4. Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans

5. Hannah Beachler and Lisa K. Sessions, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
   —

6. Jason Kisvarday and Kelsi Ephraim, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Rick Heinrichs, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

8. Eugenio Caballero, Bardo

9. Christian M. Goldbeck, All Quiet on the Western Front

10. Akin McKenzie, The Woman King

Best Sound

1. The team from Top Gun: Maverick

2. The team from Elvis

3. The team from Avatar: The Way of Water

4. The team from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5. The team from All Quiet on the Western Front
   —

6. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. The team from Babylon

8. The team from TÁR

9. The team from The Batman

10. The team from Nope

Best Visual Effects

1. The team from Avatar: The Way of Water

2. The team from Top Gun: Maverick

3. The team from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. The team from Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
   —

6. The team from RRR

7. The team from Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

8. The team from The Batman

9. The team from Good Night Oppy

10. The team from Nope

2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

Farewell Emmys, hello Oscars!

It feels all too recent that awards prognosticators, myself included, were pulling their hair out over whether it’d be CODA or The Power of the Dog in Best Picture. Now, six months later, the latest plethora of Oscar contenders are getting ready for battle, with many surfacing at the Telluride, Toronto and Venice Film Festivals.

In recent days, with early reviews dropping on a number of wannabe honorees, I’ve found myself tinkering with predictions over and over again. My initial, pre-festival hunches were jam-packed with the likes of Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths), Empire of Light and The Son, films which - on paper but evidently not in reality - looked like daunting awards season contenders.

It’s hard to be terribly confident about anything at this stage in the game. The likes of Everything Everywhere All at Once and Top Gun: Maverick have already proven critical and commercial smashes - the question is whether these earlier releases sustain that momentum heading into the fall and winter.

In the acting fields, the likes of Cate Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh, Brendan Fraser, Colin Farrell, Austin Butler and Michelle Williams have already scored raves for their turns and will surely be prominent players throughout the season. Many performances, however, have yet to be seen, so to call any of them shoo-ins would make me a silly goose.

And yes, I will presume Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon is not happening until 2023.

With that said, here are my hunches for now in the top eight categories, ranked from most to least likely to be nominated. I’ll update these at some point next month, at which point we’ll perhaps have a tad more clarity.

Enjoy! :)

Best Picture

1. The Fabelmans

2. Babylon

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

4. She Said

5. Armageddon Time

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Top Gun: Maverick

8. Women Talking

9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

10. Avatar: The Way of Water
    —

11. The Whale

12. TÁR

13. Decision to Leave

14. Triangle of Sadness

15. Elvis

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon

3. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

4. Maria Schrader, She Said

5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
   —

6. James Gray, Armageddon Time

7. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale

9. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

10. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Margot Robbie, Babylon

4. Carey Mulligan, She Said

5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
   —

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

9. Zoe Kazan, She Said

10. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Best Actor

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Austin Butler, Elvis

4. Hugh Jackman, The Son

5. Bill Nighy, Living
   —

6. Adam Driver, White Noise

7. Diego Calva, Babylon

8. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

9. Song Kang-ho, Broker

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

Best Supporting Actress

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

3. Jean Smart, Babylon

4. Hong Chau, The Whale

5. Samantha Morton, She Said
   —

6. Claire Foy, Women Talking

7. Sadie Sink, The Whale

8. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

9. Laura Dern, The Son

10. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

3. Brad Pitt, Babylon

4. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time

5. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
   —

6. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

8. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

9. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Best Original Screenplay

1. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans

2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Damien Chazelle, Babylon

4. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

5. James Gray, Armageddon Time
   —

6. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

8. Billy Eichner and Nicholas Stoller, Bros

9. Todd Field, TÁR

10. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

2. Noah Baumbach, White Noise

3. Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

4. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said

5. Kazuo Ishiguro, Living
   —

6. Samuel D. Hunter, The Whale

7. Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Son

8. Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

9. Audrey Diwan, Marcia Romano and Anne Berest, Happening

10. Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

FINAL 2021 Oscar Winner Predictions

We are so close!

Come Sunday, this awards season, a largely exasperating endeavor that has sported some marvelous movies but not always brought out the best in film fans, will come to a close.

As we reach a conclusion, many categories appear all but completely sewn up, including a trio of acting awards, handful of technical prizes and honors for directing, where no one has surfaced to pose a real threat to Jane Campion.

There does, however, remain a fair share of suspense, including in the top category, where SAG, PGA and WGA victories have catapulted CODA (for the record, my favorite film of the year) from underdog to potential winner. Without a doubt, it has surged at precisely the right time, sporting momentum just as voters are taking to their ballots. The question remains, however - can CODA, with its mere trio of nominations, really take down 12-time nominee The Power of the Dog?

It’s a plenty plausible outcome, especially with the curveball of a preferential ballot. But it remains unclear whether voters in the craft categories, who are clearly fond of The Power of the Dog, are all that taken with CODA. (Pre-PGA, I suspected Belfast, which did muster a healthy spread of Oscar noms, would prove the greatest threat.) They may be - and it’s not as if films devoid of technical nominations are instantly doomed in Best Picture.

But much as I’d love to predict CODA, I cannot get past The Power of the Dog’s haul on nominations morning. If it may not rack up much in the way of wins, we have unimpeachable evidence, through these noms, that broad support exists for the Campion picture.

Then there’s the Best Actress situation, where Jessica Chastain, with SAG and Critics’ Choice wins, now looks like the one to beat. No doubt, she is very well-positioned, especially as the category’s lone nominee without an Oscar win.

Chastain is not, however, a shoo-in on the level of Will Smith, Ariana DeBose and Troy Kotsur. Her film was neither a critical nor commercial hit and her competition, with the possible exception of Nicole Kidman, has fiercely passionate supporters. It’s just not terribly clear who the alternative to Chastain would be. It may just be Olivia Colman, who has scored a Best Actress upset before and whose film has a tad more AMPAS support than Chastain’s. Had The Lost Daughter made it into Best Picture, I’d likely be predicting her here.

Both screenwriting categories remain unsettled, made all the more chaotic by WGA inexplicably going for Don’t Look Up. At this point, Belfast’s one remaining hope likely lies in that category, Best Original Screenplay. If CODA scores Best Adapted Screenplay, expect it to go all the way in Best Picture. I suppose it could still take top honors without it…but not terribly likely.

Down the ballot, keep an eye on Flee in its trio of categories, all of which it’s tragically poised to finish 2nd or 3rd in. The shorts seem to have modest front-runners this year but are always ripe for upsets.

In the craft categories, suspense remains in several fields, including Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score, Best Original Song and Best Production Design. If The Power of the Dog can muster anything in the technical races, take that as an exceedingly strong sign that it’s prevailing in Picture. It’s also down the ballot where surprise Best Picture nominee Nightmare Alley may have a prayer to score a trophy or two.

So, that’s that. Let’s get to it - below are my final Oscar winner predictions, ranked from most to least likely to win. Fingers crossed we’re in for a ceremony that isn’t an awe-inspiring trainwreck - and that discourse among film fans post-ceremony is a little more civil than it’s all too proven pre-Oscars.

Good luck! :)

Best Picture

1. The Power of the Dog

2. CODA

3. Belfast

4. King Richard

5. West Side Story

6. Dune

7. Licorice Pizza

8. Don’t Look Up

9. Drive My Car

10. Nightmare Alley

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

4. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Best Actress

1. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

5. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Best Actor

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... BOOM!

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

4. Judi Dench, Belfast

5. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Best Supporting Actor

1. Troy Kotsur, CODA

2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

3. Ciarán Hinds, Belfast

4. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

5. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up

4. Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World

5. Zach Baylin, King Richard

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Sian Heder, CODA

3. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

4. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car

5. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto

2. The Mitchells vs. The Machines

3. Flee

4. Luca

5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Best Animated Short Film

1. Robin Robin

2. Affairs of the Art

3. The Windshield Wiper

4. Bestia

5. BoxBallet

Best Documentary Feature

1. Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

2. Flee

3. Writing with Fire

4. Attica

5. Ascension

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. The Queen of Basketball

2. Audible

3. Lead Me Home

4. Three Songs for Benazir

5. When We Were Bullies

Best International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)

2. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

3. Flee (Denmark)

4. The Hand of God (Italy)

5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Long Goodbye

2. Ala Kachuu - Take and Run

3. On My Mind

4. The Dress

5. Please Hold

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune

2. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog

3. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley

4. Janusz Kamiński, West Side Story

5. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Costume Design

1. Jenny Beavan, Cruella

2. Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan, Dune

3. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story

4. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley

5. Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran, Cyrano

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune

2. Pamela Martin, King Richard

3. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog

4. Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM!

5. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2. Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon, Cruella

3. Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America

4. Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras, House of Gucci

5. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune

Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer, Dune

2. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog

3. Germaine Franco, Encanto

4. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up

5. Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die

2. "Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto

3. “Be Alive,” King Richard

4. “Down to Joy,” Belfast

5. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days

Best Production Design

1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley

2. Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune

3. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. Adam Stockhausen and: Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story

5. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune

2. Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor, No Time to Die

3. Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story

4. Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb, The Power of the Dog

5. Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri, Belfast

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune

2. Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home

3. Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die

4. Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy

5. Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

2021 SAG Award Winner Predictions

In an already topsy-turvy awards season, this year’s SAG nominations only made the road to Oscar noms morning all the more unsettled.

Beyond The Power of the Dog and West Side Story, both considered shoo-ins for Best Ensemble bids, falling short in contention for the top prize, we also saw the likes of Kristen Stewart (Spencer), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) and both Belfast gentlemen (Ciaran Hinds & Jamie Dornan) see their awards season standings deflate. Of course Stewart, Ellis and Hinds ultimately scored Oscar noms - but their SAG snubs have made it exceedingly unlikely they can triumph on the big night.

Will the SAG winners offer more clarity in terms of this season’s Oscar frontrunners? Maybe…or maybe not. Let’s just go ahead and dive into each race here.

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. CODA

2. Belfast

3. Don’t Look Up

4. King Richard

5. House of Gucci

While it scored two acting noms here, it is not likely House of Gucci, which landed a mere one Oscar nomination (in Best Makeup and Hairstyling), will take top honors here. Likewise, it’s tough to fathom King Richard taking this when Ellis couldn’t make the cut. This strikes me as a barn burner among the remaining three contenders. Don’t Look Up has the sort of sprawling, starry cast that often takes this category and, among SAG members, it’s probably the most-seen of these nominees. It’s also, however, among the year’s most polarizing contenders and it failed to land a solo acting nomination. Belfast looks to perhaps be The Power of the Dog’s greatest threat for Best Picture honors, with writer/director Kenneth Branagh & Focus Features running the most robust of campaigns. It did, however, only score one acting nomination here, for Caitríona Balfe (who didn’t even make the Oscar cut). If that’s all it could muster, is the enthusiasm that strong among actors? And then there’s CODA, which didn’t see the AMPAS support that the likes of Belfast and King Richard scored, but has nonetheless emerged one of the season’s great crowd-pleasers, with sturdy, if modest, support across the precursors. It’s a tough call but, with Belfast and Don’t Look Up underperforming what I suspected they’d net here, I think the little dark horse might just take it.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Hudson, fabulous as she is, won’t be taking this. Actors have triumphed at SAG in spite of Oscar snubs - but it’s extremely rare. So, much as SAG may be keen on House of Gucci, it’s a very uphill climb for Gaga. Chastain cannot be entirely counted out but is there that much passion out there for the performance? (There certainly isn’t for her film itself.) In the end, this strikes me as a barn burner between Kidman and Colman, neither of whom has won an individual SAG prize for film. Had Kidman been the lone nominee for her film here, I’d be inclined to side with Colman, whose film and performance have earned warmer notices. Alas, with co-star Javier Bardem making the cut, I suspect the Being the Ricardos love is just strong enough among members for Kidman to score the edge.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

While I suspect Cumberbatch triumphs at BAFTA and has a real shot at the Oscar, Smith, whose film has a Best Ensemble nom (unlike Cumberbatch), should have it made in the shade here. The others won’t come close.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

3. Caitríona Balfe, Belfast

4. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

5. Ruth Negga, Passing

Post-Oscar noms, this is a rather odd lineup to assess. Three of these contenders - Balfe, Blanchett and Negga - missed the Oscar cut. There has been exactly one non-Oscar nominee to take this category at SAG - Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), who benefitted from eventual Oscar winner Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)’s bizarre snub. It is exceedingly unlikely, barring robust rallying around Belfast, that any of this trio will pull a Blunt. That leaves DeBose and Dunst, both Oscar nominees whose films inexplicably missed in Best Ensemble here. Many pundits will point to issues around screener distribution to SAG members as the reason for West Side Story’s snub - that had 20th Century not strangely stumbled, the film would’ve earned more support. Considering DeBose made the cut, I find that argument a tad shaky…but it’s nonetheless tough to not predict her here, especially given the more surprising Power of the Dog snub. It may be close, especially given the countless number of actors Dunst has worked with, but still, bank on DeBose.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Troy Kotsur, CODA

2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

3. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

5. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

Affleck, whose film landed without a hint of fanfare, can be safely counted out here. Cooper may be increasingly overdue at the Oscars but he hasn’t proven quite as beloved among SAG members, falling short on individual noms for American Hustle and American Sniper. So, it’s tough to fathom him having a prayer without the Oscar nom - and it’s about as difficult to picture Razzie nominee Leto prevailing, even with SAG members eating up Gucci. As may be the case on Oscar night, this looks to be a close call between Smit-McPhee, who’s largely steamrolled the precursors thus far, and Kotsur, who never really took off among the critics’ awards but nonetheless sports the sort of irresistibly heartwarming turn that is so easy to picture as a Best Supporting Actor winner. With CODA making the Best Ensemble cut, I’m inclined to give Kotsur the edge - and if he does take it, he might just go all the way to the Oscar.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Dune

2. No Time to Die

3. The Matrix Resurrections

4. Black Widow

5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Dune’s the obvious call, though No Time to Die cannot be entirely counted out. Skyfall did take this category in 2012, albeit against competition not nearly as fierce as Dune - and they didn’t even bother with nominations for Quantum of Solace and Spectre.