2020 Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

In the words of the great Barry Manilow, looks like we made it.

On the heels of the most deliciously dizzying awards season I can recall, culminating in the absolute madness that was the BAFTA nominations, we will at last be graced with Oscar nominations this coming Monday. And jaws will again drop because, frankly, big snubs are just unavoidable, particularly in the category of Best Supporting Actress, which has proven chaotic to the point where there’s barely consensus on two or three likely nominees, let alone four or five. But we’ll get there shortly.

While Oscar noms morning could prove me wrong, my sense is the following films have peaked at just the right time in terms of awards season momentum: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland and Promising Young Woman. It would be flabbergasting to witness the latter three films not earn a plethora of recognition and while Judas may not be making the cut in say, Best Director or Best Actor, it almost surely will not sport a lone nom for star Daniel Kaluuya (something I’d feared earlier in the season).

I don’t get that same feeling of momentum from the likes of Mank and One Night in Miami, which are still poised to earn their fair share of nominations but no longer ring as formidable for major wins. Worse off are contenders like Da 5 Bloods and News of the World, which were presumed strong earlier in the season but now may not make much of a splash at all in Oscar noms.

In terms of surprises, one gut feeling I can’t seem to shake is an Aaron Sorkin snub in Best Director, with Regina King edging him out. For whatever reason, AMPAS has a history of sidelining Sorkin when he’s expected to make the cut - healthy precursor runs for A Few Good Men, The American President, Charlie Wilson’s War and Steve Jobs did not produce Oscar nominations. I’d also keep a close eye on Shaka King perhaps grabbing that slot.

I don’t sense shocks are on the horizon in the two lead acting categories, though Mads Mikkelsen should be watched in Best Actor and several contenders could grab that fifth slot in Best Actress that I suspect ultimately goes to Andra Day, even if she missed at SAG and BAFTA. How sad it is that the magnificent Delroy Lindo and Sophia Loren are now improbable long shots!

As for the two supporting fields, well…it’s a hot mess.

Best Supporting Actor is a tad less haphazard, in that it at least sports three contenders - Daniel Kaluuya, Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sacha Baron Cohen - who resemble shoo-ins. Beyond that, it’s a free-for-all among Chadwick Boseman, Alan Kim, Jared Leto, Paul Raci and David Strathairn for the final two slots, with Bill Murray perhaps still somewhat in contention, though On the Rocks has steeply faded in awards season relevancy. While I’m terrified to jinx them, my gut does say it’s Raci and Strathairn taking the two spots. God help us if Leto makes it.

Then…deep breath…there’s Best Supporting Actress, a category I’ve found myself hopelessly staring at in recent days, at a loss of how to properly gauge.

While neither is quite on the level of say, Kaluuya, in terms of a nomination lock, I do think both Olivia Colman and Youn Yuh-jung are reasonably safe bets, particularly if Minari is in for a strong overall showing. Beyond that, it’s a nightmare.

Maria Bakalova checked off all the boxes precursors-wise but AMPAS’ historical aversion to comedy won’t be a breeze to overcome. Ellen Burstyn is an AMPAS favorite and surfaced at Critics Choice but what should’ve been an easy SAG nomination turned into a stunning, campaign-derailing snub. Glenn Close landed at the Globes, Critics Choice and SAG but it remains unclear whether she can withstand the hideous Hillbilly Elegy reviews to an eighth career Oscar nom. Dominique Fishback has been mostly MIA this season but her film is peaking at the right time and she just surfaced at BAFTA. Jodie Foster pulled the Globes upset but hasn’t really shown up elsewhere, including at BAFTA where her film was otherwise embraced. Amanda Seyfried once seemed like a surefire contender for the win here but that SAG snub changed everything. And last but hardly least, Helena Zengel landed at the Globes and SAG but News of the World hasn’t exactly set the awards season on fire.

You could make a convincing case with any trio here, though I do think Burstyn and Zengel are perhaps sitting in a slightly lower tier. I’m sticking with Close, who checked off the boxes she needed with CC/GG/SAG, and Seyfried, whose film should make a nice showing in nominations, even if it’s doomed in terms of wins. And then I’ve got Fishback in the final slot, edging out Bakalova and Foster. This is based on the presumption Judas has an overall marvelous morning - if it doesn’t, Fishback likely misses and Bakalova takes it.

Downballot, keep an eye on the exceedingly tight race for the fifth slot in Best Adapted Screenplay, where Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, First Cow, News of the World and The White Tiger are duking it out. Watch too Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7 in the technical categories - if they are to stand a fighting chance against Nomadland for the top prize, following a SAG Ensemble win for one of them, they’ll want to build as robust as possible an all-around show of support (in the way Parasite’s Film Editing and Production Design noms were indicative of widespread love and thus a legit shot at Best Picture).

So, I think I’ll leave it there. Bottom line is we’re not in for a snoozefest come Monday morning - albeit not quite the insanity of what BAFTA offered up but a slate of nominees that nonetheless inspires at least a handful of gasps.

Who do you have making the cut?

Best Picture

1. Nomadland

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Mank

4. Minari

5. Promising Young Woman

6. One Night in Miami

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

8. The Father

9. Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

10. Soul

11. Sound of Metal

12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday

13. Da 5 Bloods

14. News of the World

15. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Director

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. David Fincher, Mank

3. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

4. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami
   —

6. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah

8. Florian Zeller, The Father

9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World

Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
   —

6. Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot

7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

8. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie

9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

10. Yeri Han, Minari

Best Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

4. Steven Yeun, Minari

5. Gary Oldman, Mank
   —

6. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round

7. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

8. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Father

2. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

5. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

7. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian

8. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

9. Helena Zengel, News of the World

10. Priyanka Chopra Jonas, The White Tiger

Best Supporting Actor

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

5. David Strathairn, Nomadland
   —

6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

7. Jared Leto, The Little Things

8. Alan Kim, Minari

9. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

10. Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Screenplay

1. Minari

2. Promising Young Woman

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Mank

5. Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

6. Soul

7. Sound of Metal

8. Da 5 Bloods

9. Palm Springs

10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland

2. The Father

3. One Night in Miami

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
   —

6. The White Tiger

7. News of the World

8. First Cow

9. The Mauritanian

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul

2. Wolfwalkers

3. Over the Moon

4. Onward

5. The Willoughbys
   —

6. The Croods: A New Age

7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

8. Earwig and the Witch

9. No. 7 Cherry Lane

10. Bombay Rose

Best Documentary Feature

1. Time

2. Collective

3. Welcome to Chechnya

4. The Truffle Hunters

5. The Painter and the Thief
   —

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy

7. Dick Johnson Is Dead

8. Boys State

9. My Octopus Teacher

10. Crip Camp

Best International Feature

1. Another Round

2. Quo Vadis, Aida?

3. Collective

4. La Llorana

5. Night of the Kings
   —

6. A Sun

7. The Mole Agent

8. Two of Us

9. The Man Who Sold His Skin

10. Hope

Best Animated Short Film

1. If Anything Happens, I Love You

2. Out

3. Opera

4. The Snail and the Whale

5. To Gerard
   —

6. Kapaemahu

7. Genius Loci

8. Burrow

9. Traces

10. Yes-People

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. A Love Song for Latasha

2. Hunger Ward

3. The Speed Cubers

4. A Concerto is a Conversation

5. Colette
   —

6. What Would Sophia Loren Do?

7. Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa

8. Do Not Split

9. Call Center Blues

10. Hysterical Girl

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Letter Room

2. Da Yie

3. Bittu

4. The Human Voice

5. The Present
   —

6. Two Distant Strangers

7. White Eye

8. The Kicksled Choir

9. Feeling Through

10. The Van

Best Cinematography

1. Nomadland

2. Mank

3. News of the World

4. Judas and the Black Messiah

5. Minari
   —

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Tenet

8. Da 5 Bloods

9. Cherry

10. The Midnight Sky

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Mank

3. Emma

4. Ammonite

5. Mulan
   —

6. Promising Young Woman

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday

8. The Personal History of David Copperfield

9. Birds of Prey

10. One Night in Miami

Best Film Editing

1. Nomadland

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Mank

4. Minari

5. Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

6. Promising Young Woman

7. Sound of Metal

8. The Father

9. Tenet

10. News of the World

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Mank

3. Hillbilly Elegy

4. Birds of Prey

5. Emma
   —

6. Pinocchio

7. One Night in Miami

8. The Little Things

9. The Glorias

10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

Best Original Score

1. Soul

2. Mank

3. News of the World

4. Minari

5. The Midnight Sky
   —

6. The Little Things

7. Promising Young Woman

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7

9. Tenet

10. The Life Ahead

Best Original Song

1. “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

2. “Io Si (Seen),” The Life Ahead

3. “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. “Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah

5. “Turntables,” All In: The Fight for Democracy
   —

6. “Rain Song,” Minari

7. “Wuhan Flu,” Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

8. “Make It Work,” Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

9. “Loyal Brave True,” Mulan

10. “Husavik,” Eurovision Song Contest

Best Production Design

1. Mank

2. The Father

3. News of the World

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Emma
   —

6. Tenet

7. Mulan

8. Birds of Prey

9. The Personal History of David Copperfield

10. The Midnight Sky

Best Sound

1. Sound of Metal

2. Soul

3. Mank

4. News of the World

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
   —

6. Greyhound

7. Tenet

8. Nomadland

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7

10. The Midnight Sky

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet

2. The Midnight Sky

3. Welcome to Chechnya

4. The One and Only Ivan

5. Birds of Prey
   —

6. Soul

7. Mank

8. Mulan

9. Bloodshot

10. Love and Monsters

2020 Golden Globe Winner Predictions

Ah, the Golden Globes. How I love that Hollywood Foreign Press Association - not corrupt at all!

All kidding aside (how can I not love the HFPA when it named Sally Kirkland Best Actress in 1987?), I am pumped for this year’s ceremony, in part because the awards season remains so unsettled. There isn’t a true shoo-in to be found among the acting races here, with only Best Animated Feature and Best Foreign Language Film sporting anything in the way of overwhelming favorites.

That said, my gut says Aaron Sorkin - a nine-time Globe nominee at this point - will see his film, The Trial of the Chicago 7, make the healthiest splash of the night. Mank, the nominations leader, is close behind - and I expect David Fincher to grab the Best Director prize - with Nomadland and perhaps even Promising Young Woman, both Director/Screenplay contenders, having at least some fighting chance up in Best Drama Picture.

Oddly enough, I fear Nomadland is liable to find itself shut out here. Frances McDormand could of course triumph but she isn’t exactly a HFPA favorite, having lost for both Fargo and Olive Kittredge. Given the overall affection for Promising Young Woman, I’m going with Carey Mulligan for the Best Drama Actress win. Likewise, considering the Drama Picture nomination for The Father and lukewarm reception for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, I’ve got Anthony Hopkins taking the Best Drama Actor prize over Chadwick Boseman - though expect the latter to still triumph at the Oscars (after a SAG win)

The Musical/Comedy categories are an absolute wasteland this year (hi, Music) but might be more competitive and exciting than you’d think. Most seem convinced a Borat sweep is on the horizon and, while I’m inclined to agree both Maria Bakalova and Sacha Baron Cohen will emerge triumphant in their respective categories, I suspect a Hamilton upset may come to fruition for the top prize. Hell, even Lin-Manuel Miranda may block Cohen from scoring two trophies. Oh, and I still don’t think Bakalova makes the Oscar cut, even if it’s tough to picture her losing here.

The Supporting categories are also tough to forecast.

Sans Helena Zengel, a newcomer whose film wasn’t otherwise much embraced, I can see a case for any of the Best Supporting Actress nominees winning. Jodie Foster is a HFPA favorite whose film scored a surprise Drama Actor nom; Glenn Close remains spectacularly overdue for that Oscar and the Globes played a key role in bolstering her campaign for The Wife; and Amanda Seyfried graces the night’s nominations leader and sure seemed like the favorite here and elsewhere until that startling SAG snub.

In the end, given the love for The Father and her flawless track record with the Globes (thus far, at least), my money has to be on Olivia Colman - but she’s a soft front-runner.

Likewise, I see Cohen as a very modest favorite in Best Supporting Actor, likely to only triumph if his film is taking the top prize. I fear it may not be Daniel Kaluuya or Leslie Odom, Jr., whose films missed in Drama Picture, who is Cohen’s greatest threat but rather surprise nominee Jared Leto, who inexplicably also surfaced at SAG and whose film (also inexplicably) has made several of the Oscar shortlists. Don’t be blindsided if he pulls this out.

Elsewhere, I do see Soul and Minari as the crystal-clear favorites in Animated Feature and Foreign Language Film. Expect Odom, Jr. to triumph in Best Original Song for his One Night in Miami tune, though Diane Warren cannot be entirely counted out for her The Life Ahead composition. Had Sophia Loren made the Drama Actress cut, I might be predicting her. Last but hardly least, Best Original Score looks like a jump ball between the two Trent Reznor-Atticus Ross contenders, with the trio of other nominees likely trailing far behind.

Below are my full rankings in each category. Who do you have winning?

Best Motion Picture - Drama

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7

2. Mank

3. Nomadland

4. Promising Young Woman

5. The Father

Best Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy

1. Hamilton

2. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

3. The Prom

4. Palm Springs

5. Music

Best Director

1. David Fincher, Mank

2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

3. Regina King, One Night in Miami

4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

Best Screenplay

1. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

2. Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton, The Father

3. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

4. Jack Fincher, Mank

5. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Best Actress - Drama

1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

4. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Actor - Drama

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Gary Oldman, Mank

4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

5. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy

1. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

2. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit

3. Kate Hudson, Music

4. Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma

5. Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

2. Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton

3. Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

4. James Corden, The Prom

5. Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield

Best Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Father

2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

3. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

4. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

2. Jared Leto, The Little Things

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul

2. Over the Moon

3. Wolfwalkers

4. Onward

5. The Croods: A New Age

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Minari

2. Another Round

3. The Life Ahead

4. La Llorona

5. Two of Us

Best Original Score

1. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank

2. Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste, Soul

3. Ludwig Goransson, Tenet

4. James Newton Howard, News of the World

5. Alexandre Desplat, The Midnight Sky

Best Original Song

1. “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

2. “lo si (Seen),” The Life Ahead

3. “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. “Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah

5. “Tigress & Tweed,” The United States vs. Billie Holiday

2020 Golden Globe/SAG Nomination Predictions

At last!

I haven’t made a set of awards season predictions since my stab at Oscar nominations back in September - a list that included the likes of C’mon, C’mon, The Humans and Respect, none of which ultimately scored qualifying runs for this cycle.

I’m going to continue holding off on the Oscars until the Globes and SAG have had their say. With these nominations on the horizon next week, you know what time it is…TIME FOR PREDICTIONS!!

First off, I feel reasonably confident these precursors will look at least a tad different from what the critics’ awards have thus far offered up.

Mank, for instance, didn’t exactly catch fire among the critics but expect the Hollywood Foreign Press Association to shower it with at least a modest showing of love. The HFPA may also be more inclined to embrace the likes of News of the World and especially Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The Prom, the latter two taking advantage of the ghost towns that are this year’s Comedy/Musical categories. Likewise, over at SAG, the likes of Amy Adams and Glenn Close, headlining a film decidedly not adored by the critics, are liable to surface.

The likes of Paul Raci and Youn Yuh-jung have proven fierce contenders with the critics but are hardly shoo-ins with these voting bodies. And then there’s Maria Bakalova, who’s charged out of the starting gates as something of a Supporting Actress front-runner but will be contending in Lead at the Globes - and is no guarantee at SAG (or BAFTA after that).

Pictures like The Personal History of David Copperfield and Wild Mountain Thyme, neither of which have much in the way of momentum, may also take advantage of the barren nature of the Comedy/Musical lineups at the Globes - only to still have no prayer on Oscar noms morning.

There are also late-breaking contenders, like Judas and the Black Messiah and Malcolm and Marie, hoping to make a splash. The former’s Daniel Kaluuya appears destined for that second Oscar nom but it remains a question mark how much it’ll be embraced in other categories. And then there’s the latter film’s Zendaya and John David Washington, who’ve generated heaps of chatter for their robust turns but will need to overcome crowded categories and Malcolm and Marie’s otherwise mixed reviews.

Even in a more slender season as this, these are tough races to forecast - and it’s easy to picture the Globes and SAG producing very different quintets in the acting fields, ultimately leaving it to BAFTA to provide some clarity.

Anyway, here’s what I’m thinking goes down next week. Who do you have scoring GG/SAG glory?

Golden Globes:

Best Motion Picture - Drama

1. Nomadland

2. Da 5 Bloods

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Mank
   —

6. One Night in Miami

7. Promising Young Woman

8. Judas and the Black Messiah

9. News of the World

10. The Father

Best Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy

1. The Prom

2. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

3. Hamilton

4. Emma

5. The Personal History of David Copperfield
   —

6. Wild Mountain Thyme

7. Palm Springs

8. The King of Staten Island

9. On the Rocks

10. Enola Holmes

Best Director

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

3. David Fincher, Mank

4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami
   —

6. Paul Greengrass, News of the World

7. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

8. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky

Best Screenplay

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

4. Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Jack Fincher, Mank
   —

6. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

7. Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton, The Father

8. Spike Lee, Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo and Kevin Willmott, Da 5 Bloods

9. Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami

10. Kelly Reichardt and Jonathan Raymond, First Cow

Best Actress - Drama

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

4. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

5. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie
   —

6. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

7. Andra Day, The People vs. Billie Holiday

8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite

9. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

10. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Actor - Drama

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

4. Gary Oldman, Mank

5. Tom Hanks, News of the World
   —

6. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

7. Steven Yeun, Minari

8. John David Washington, Malcolm and Marie

9. Ben Affleck, The Way Back

10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy

1. Meryl Streep, The Prom

2. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

3. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit

4. Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma

5. Emily Blunt, Wild Mountain Thyme
   —

6. Millie Bobby Brown, Enola Holmes

7. Meryl Streep, Let Them All Talk

8. Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs

9. Rashida Jones, On the Rocks

10. Rachel McAdams, Eurovision Song Contest

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

2. Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield

3. Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

4. Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island

5. Jamie Dornan, Wild Mountain Thyme
   —

6. Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

7. Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton

8. James Corden, The Prom

9. Will Ferrell, Eurovision Song Contest

10. Mel Gibson, Fatman

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

2. Olivia Colman, The Father

3. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

5. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
   —

6. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

7. Helena Zengel, News of the World

8. Nicole Kidman, The Prom

9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

10. Candice Bergen, Let Them All Talk

Best Supporting Actor

1. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
   —

6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

7. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

10. David Strathairn, Nomadland

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul

2. Over the Moon

3. Onward

4. Wolfwalkers

5. The Croods: A New Age
   —

6. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

7. Trolls World Tour

8. The Willloughbys

9. SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run

10. No. 7 Cherry Lane

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Minari

2. Another Round

3. The Life Ahead

4. Quo Vadis, Aida?

5. Night of the Kings
   —

6. Never Gonna Snow Again

7. Apples

8. A Sun

9. My Little Sister

10. I’m No Longer Here

Best Original Score

1. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank

2. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Soul

3. James Newton Howard, News of the World

4. Emile Mosseri, Minari

5. Hans Zimmer and David Fleming, Hillbilly Elegy
   —

6. Christopher Willis, The Personal History of David Copperfield

7. Terence Blanchard, One Night in Miami

8. Daniel Pemberton, The Trial of the Chicago 7

9. Ludwid Göransson, Tenet

10. Terence Blanchard, Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Song

1. “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

2. “Seen,” The Life Ahead

3. “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. “Wear Your Crown,” The Prom

5. “Carried Me with You,” Onward
   —

6. “Rocket to the Moon,” Over the Moon

7. “Queen Bee,” Emma

8. “Hometown,” Eurovision Song Contest

9. “The Wuhan Flu,” Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

10. “Turntables,” All In: The Fight for Democracy

Screen Actors Guild Awards:

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Da 5 Bloods

2. One Night in Miami

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Minari
   —

6. The Prom

7. Mank

8. Promising Young Woman

9. Nomadland

10. The Boys in the Band

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

5. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
   —

6. Meryl Streep, The Prom

7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

8. Elisabeth Moss, The Invisible Man

9. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie

10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

4. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

5. Gary Oldman, Mank
   —

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

7. Tom Hanks, News of the World

8. Steven Yeun, Minari

9. John David Washington, Malcolm and Marie

10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

2. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

3. Olivia Colman, The Father

4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
   —

6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

7. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

8. Helena Zengel, News of the World

9. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

10. Candice Bergen, Let Them All Talk

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
   —

6. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

8. David Strathairn, Nomadland

9. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

10. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

Howdy, friends!

By this point in years past, I’d have already released my first set of Summer Oscar Predictions and be in the midst of revising them for an updated September set. Having seen a grand total of four - no, not 14…4 - 2020 releases at this point, let’s just say I haven’t exactly been engaged or inspired to explore what is destined to be the most haphazard of awards seasons.

With more trailers dropping and theaters (inexplicably) starting to reopen their doors, however, I figured I’d go ahead and give this a shot - at this point, just in the top eight categories.

If we’re indeed going to have an Oscars on April 25, I’m hopeful more contenders will be added to the calendar, as the film landscape ahead strikes me as atypically, if understandably, barren. I’m not sold, for instance, on West Side Story proving a force to be reckoned with or Da 5 Bloods even being remembered by the time 2021 rolls around, yet I couldn’t help but include them, including in Best Picture. I’m even less convinced Dune, which I’ve seen grace countless pundits’ major predictions, will be a player beyond technical categories but perhaps it too could break through.

At this point, of course, with many of these films still unseen, these hunches are total shots in the dark. Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 sure look formidable on paper but the Academy has broken the hearts of David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin before. And I’m super excited and curious to see what comes of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which might be my favorite of all August Wilson works, yet I wouldn’t necessarily call that a popular opinion (its forgotten Broadway revival, with Whoopi Goldberg and Charles S. Dutton, was a critical and commercial disaster).

And then, of course, there’s Glenn. And Michelle Pfeiffer! Imagine if both Dangerous Liaisons ladies somehow manage to win. The dream of that alone gets me pretty pumped about Oscar season, even if such sorely overdue victories are accepted over Zoom.

One year ago, I was predicted the likes of Waves in Best Picture and Jennifer Hudson in Best Supporting Actress (for Cats, obvs), so of course take these bad boys with a grain of salt… :)

Best Picture

1. Mank

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. News of the World

4. Hillbilly Elegy

5. Soul

6. Nomadland

7. The Father

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

9. West Side Story

10. Da 5 Bloods
    —

11. Ammonite

12. Respect

13. Minari

14. Judas and the Black Messiah

15. One Night in Miami

Best Director

1. David Fincher, Mank

2. Paul Greengrass, News of the World

3. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy

4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
   —

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

8. Florian Zeller, The Father

9. Francis Lee, Ammonite

10. Regina King, One Night in Miami

Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite

4. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
   —

6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

8. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water

10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Actor

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

2. Tom Hanks, News of the World

3. Gary Oldman, Mank

4. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon
   —

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

8. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

9. Gabriel Basso, Hillbilly Elegy

10. Steven Yeun, Minari

Best Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Father

2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

4. Meryl Streep, The Prom

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World
   —

6. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

7. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

8. Audra McDonald, Respect

9. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

10. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Best Supporting Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. David Strathairn, Nomadland

3. Tom Pelphrey, Mank

4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
   —

6. Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7

8. Richard Jenkins, The Humans

9. Martin Sheen, Judas and the Black Messiah

10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Original Screenplay

1. Jack Fincher, Mank

2. Pete Docter, Tina Fey, Mike Jones and Kemp Powers, Soul

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Spike Lee, Danny Bilson, Pail De Meo and Kevin Willmott, Da 5 Bloods

5. Francis Lee, Ammonite
   —

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

7. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon

8. Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks

9. Shaka King and Will Berson, Judas and the Black Messiah

10. Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father

2. Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Vanessa Taylor, Hillbilly Elegy

4. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

5. Luke Davies and Paul Greengrass, News of the World
   —

6. Patrick deWitt, French Exit

7. Suzan Lori-Parks, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

8. Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami

9. Stephen Karam, The Humans

10. Iain Morris and Taika Waititi, Next Goal Wins

FINAL 2019 Oscar Winner Predictions

For the utter lack of excitement present in this year’s acting races - look, I hate to use the l-word but Renee Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix, Laura Dern and Brad Pitt are as close to legit locks as you’ll get - there remains a great deal of suspense as we enter Oscar night, including, and perhaps most of all, in Best Picture.

Though 1917 seems to be peaking at just the right time with those key BAFTA, PGA and DGA victories, I still see the top showdown as a virtual jump ball among it, Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, with Jojo Rabbit, which has picked up some guilds steam as of late, and Joker, the nominations leader, not entirely down for the count.

What nudges me in Parasite’s direction is that SAG win - which, I have to admit, I didn’t expect. That victory wholeheartedly makes up for the lack of an acting Oscar nomination and, coupled with essential showings in Film Editing and Production Design here, strikes me as indicative that just enough industry support for the picture exists for it to go all the way, even if it fails to win much down the ballot. (I have Parasite scoring its lone other victory in International Feature.)

Sam Mendes looks to be in solid shape for his second career Oscar - a surprise loss, however, would surely doom 1917 for the top prize. While I can picture a Parasite/Mendes or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood/Mendes split, I cannot see 1917 prevailing in Best Picture without its director triumphing as well. And, should Bong Joon-ho or Quentin Tarantino score the upset in Director, you better believe their film is making it across the finish line up top.

The writing categories remain exciting too, with Adapted Screenplay having three viable candidates in the running (this could be where The Irishman saves itself from a shutout, though I’m inclined not to predict it) and Tarantino in nearly as sturdy a position in Original Screenplay as Mendes is in Director - the front-runner but not an invincible one. A Parasite victory there would likely seal the deal for Picture and Marriage Story, once upon a time a more formidable awards season contender than it ultimately turned out to be, perhaps still has a sliver of a chance.

Further down the ballot, there aren’t many shoo-ins to be found, sans Parasite in International Feature and perhaps Bombshell in Makeup & Hairstyling. Ford v Ferrari, despite being hopeless in Picture, could triumph on its other three nominations, including Film Editing, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood may flourish or flounder - there really is a possibility, albeit a slight one, that only Pitt walks away with an Oscar for the film.

And let’s not forget what I consider one of the evening’s most wide-open affairs - Original Song.

Elton John initially seemed a sure thing - that is, until Rocketman otherwise flatlined on nominations morning, with the new John tune its lone recognition. Voters also don’t seem terribly keen on Frozen II, which somehow missed in Animated Feature. Randy Newman managed to prevail in this category for an even more forgettable song with Toy Story 3, Cynthia Erivo could EGOT by triumphing with her Harriet song and yes, Diane Warren, the Glenn Close/Thelma Ritter of Original Song, is on her 11th nomination without a win. All circumstances considered, I actually like her chances, even if Breakthrough is…decidedly not an Oscar-caliber production.

All that said, here they are, folks - my final predictions in this exceedingly dizzying awards season…

Best Picture

1. Parasite

2. 1917

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Jojo Rabbit

5. Joker

6. Little Women

7. The Irishman

8. Marriage Story

9. Ford v Ferrari

Best Director

1. Sam Mendes, 1917

2. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Todd Phillips, Joker

5. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Best Actress

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

5. Charlize Theron, Bombshell

Best Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

2. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

3. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

2. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

3. Florence Pugh, Little Women

4. Margot Robbie, Bombshell

5. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman

4. Al Pacino, The Irishman

5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

Best Original Screenplay

1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite

3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

4. Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917

5. Rian Johnson, Knives Out

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

2. Greta Gerwig, Little Women

3. Steven Zaillian, The Irishman

4. Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker

5. Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4

2. Missing Link

3. Klaus

4. I Lost My Body

5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Best Documentary Feature

1. American Factory

2. Honeyland

3. For Sama

4. The Edge of Democracy

5. The Cave

Best International Feature

1. Parasite (South Korea)

2. Pain and Glory (Spain)

3. Honeyland (North Macedonia)

4. Les Miserables (France)

5. Corpus Christi (Poland)

Best Animated Short Film

1. Memorable

2. Hair Love

3. Kitbull

4. Daughter

5. Sister

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. St. Louis Superman

2. Walk Run Cha-Cha

3. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)

4. Life Overtakes Me

5. In the Absence

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Neighbors’ Window

2. Brotherhood

3. Saria

4. Nefta Football Club

5. A Sister

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, 1917

2. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman

4. Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse

5. Lawrence Sher, Joker

Best Costume Design

1. Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit

3. Jacqueline Durran, Little Women

4. Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson, The Irishman

5. Mark Bridges, Joker

Best Film Editing

1. Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker, Ford v Ferrari

2. Yang Jin-mo, Parasite

3. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman

4. Jeff Groth, Joker

5. Tom Eagles, Jojo Rabbit

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker, Bombshell

2. Jeremy Woodhead, Judy

3. Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou, Joker

4. Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten, and David White, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

5. Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, and Rebecca Cole, 1917

Best Original Score

1. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker

2. Thomas Newman, 1917

3. John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

4. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women

5. Randy Newman, Marriage Story

Best Original Song

1. “I’m Standing with You,” Breakthrough

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman

3. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4

4. “Stand Up,” Harriet

5. “Into the Unknown,” Frozen II

Best Production Design

1. Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales, 1917

3. Lee Ha-jun and Cho Won-woo, Parasite

4. Ra Vincent and Nora Sopková, Jojo Rabbit

5. Bob Shaw and Regina Graves, The Irishman

Best Sound Editing

1. Donald Sylvester, Ford v Ferrari

2. Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate, 1917

3. Alan Robert Murray, Joker

4. Wylie Stateman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

5. Matthew Wood and David Acord, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Sound Mixing

1. Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson, 1917

2. Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow, Ford v Ferrari

3. Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland, Joker

4. Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler, and Mark Ulano, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

5. Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano, Ad Astra

Best Visual Effects

1. Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy, 1917

2. Dan DeLeeuw, Matt Aitken, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick, Avengers: Endgame

3. Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, and Nelson Sepulveda, The Irishman

4. Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Elliot Newman, The Lion King

5. Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker