2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions (December)

Hey there. ;)

It’s been more than two months since I released my first set of Oscar nomination predictions for the season. I flirted with an October update, only to realize those initial hunches wouldn’t change a whole lot with a revision.

This, however, feels like a prime point to get a revised set of predictions in place. In a mere matter of days, the likes of the National Board of Review and New York Film Critics Circle will release their lists of honorees, followed shortly by the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Critics Choice Association and a myriad of other critics groups looking to influence the awards season conversation with their selections. By month’s end, with guild awards on the horizon in January, we’re liable to already be reeling from what likely to be a dizzying season of precursors.

So, before those groups have their say, let’s update these bad boys.

As I write this, with first reactions finally coming in this week for West Side Story, there’s really just one big question mark in terms of contenders that’ve yet to be screened - Nightmare Alley. This one’s giving me more The Black Dahlia and Shutter Island than The Shape of Water vibes but, for now, I’ll presume Guillermo del Toro’s latest lavish production will prove at least a modest awards season force to be reckoned with.

When it comes to scoring nominations across a plethora of categories, Belfast and The Power of the Dog continue to look like the surest bets, though neither is quite convincing me as our Best Picture winner. While I can fathom it being Belfast in the end, I’ve more got my eye on King Richard, Licorice Pizza and perhaps even West Side Story as the crowd-pleasing contenders that might just go all the way. Barring Nightmare Alley exceeding expectations in a big way, I don’t see another contender out there poised to be a formidable force for the Best Picture win (sorry, Dune fans).

In the acting fields, Best Actress increasingly strikes me as a barnburner between Kristen Stewart and Nicole Kidman, even if I’m not super-sold on Spencer and Being the Ricardos in many other categories. While I hesitate to ever use the L-word (you know, the one that rhymes with mock) in awards season prognostication, Will Smith looks about as close to a shoo-in as you can get for the Best Actor trophy. Far less settled are the two Supporting races, which lack sure bets for nominations, let alone sport anything close to clear front-runners for wins.

Going back to Dune for a sec - while I remain unconvinced it’ll be a threat for the Best Picture win, it sure does look like a juggernaut down the ballot in the technical races, especially if any of the likes of Nightmare Alley and The Matrix Resurrections don’t prove intimating awards season forces. For the first time this season, I have made predictions in these categories and yes, you’ll see all three of these pictures scattered across them.

Let’s get to the good stuff. Below you’ll find updated predictions for the month of December, from most to least likely to earn a nomination. In many cases, a contender has moved up or down from my September forecast - or fallen out of its category entirely. Expect another update early in the New Year, at that point with the shorts included.

Enjoy! :)

Best Picture

1. Belfast (-)

2. The Power of the Dog (-)

3. Dune (+7)

4. Licorice Pizza (+4)

5. King Richard (-2)

6. West Side Story (-1)

7. Don’t Look Up (-)

8. CODA (+1)

9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)

10. C’mon C’mon (+2)
    —

11. Nightmare Alley (-7)

12. Being the Ricardos (NEW)

13. House of Gucci (-1)

14. The Lost Daughter (+1)

15. Spencer (-4)

DROPPED
The French Dispatch (-2)

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (+2)

3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-1)

4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (+1)

5. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (NEW)
   —

6. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (+1)

7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (-1)

8. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (-5)

9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-)

10. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (-)

DROPPED
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)

Best Actress

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (-)

2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (+6)

3. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (NEW)

4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (-3)

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (-)
   —

6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (-2)

7. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (-1)

8. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (-5)

9. Tessa Thompson, Passing (NEW)

10. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (NEW)

DROPPED
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (-4)
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (-2)
Halle Berry, Bruised (-1)

Best Actor

1. Will Smith, King Richard (-)

2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-)

3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (+1)

4. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon (-1)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (-)
   —

6. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM! (+2)

7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (-1)

8. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (-1)

9. Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza (NEW)

10. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (-1)

DROPPED
Adam Driver, House of Gucci (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (+3)

2. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (+2)

3. Judi Dench, Belfast (-1)

4. Marlee Matlin, CODA (+2)

5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (+3)
   —

6. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (+1)

7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (NEW)

8. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (-3)

9. Ruth Negga, Passing (+2)

10. Ann Dowd, Mass (+1)

DROPPED
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-10)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (+5)

2. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (+2)

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (+4)

4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (-3)

5. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (-)
   —

6. Troy Kotsur, CODA (+4)

7. Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon (NEW)

8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (NEW)

9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (NEW)

10. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (NEW)

DROPPED
Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-9)
Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up (-8)
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (-3)
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-)

2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (-)

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up (-)

4. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon (-)

5. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (NEW)
   —

6. Zach Baylin, King Richard (-1)

7. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos (+3)

8. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch (-1)

9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-3)

10. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (-1)

DROPPED
Steven Knight, Spencer (-3)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Sian Heder, CODA (+2)

3. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-1)

4. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-1)

5. Tony Kushner, West Side Story (+3)
   —

6. Rebecca Hall, Passing (-)

7. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune (+3)

8. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car (NEW)

9. Stephen Karam, The Humans (-4)

10. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley (-3)

DROPPED
Becky Johnston and Roberto Bentivegna, House of Gucci (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto

2. Luca

3. Flee

4. Raya and the Last Dragon

5. Belle
   —

6. Vivo

7. The Summit of the Gods

8. The Mitchells vs. the Machines

9. Ron’s Gone Wrong

10. Where Is Anne Frank

Best Documentary Feature

1. Flee

2. The Rescue

3. Faya Dayi

4. The Lost Leonardo

5. Becoming Cousteau
   —

6. Summer Of Soul

7. The First Wave

8. Procession

9. Attica

10. Ailey

Best International Feature

1. A Hero (Iran)

2. Flee (Denmark)

3. The Hand of God (Italy)

4. Drive My Car (Japan)

5. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
   —

6. Compartment No. 6 (Finland)

7. Titane (France)

8. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)

9. Memoria (Colombia)

10. I’m Your Man (Germany)

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune

2. Haris Zambarloukos, Belfast

3. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog

4. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story
   —

6. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley

7. Robert Yeoman, The French Dispatch

8. Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman, Licorice Pizza

9. Claire Mithon, Spencer

10. Eduard Grau, Passing

Best Costume Design

1. Jacqueline West, House of Gucci

2. Jenny Beavan, Cruella

3. Jacqueline Durran, Spencer

4. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story

5. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley
   —

6. Jacqueline West, Dune

7. Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch

8. Massimo Cantini Parrini, Cyrano

9. Susan Lyall, Being the Ricardos

10. Michael O’Connor, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune

2. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog

3. Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, Belfast

4. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up

5. Andy Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza
   —

6. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, West Side Story

7. Pamela Martin, King Richard

8. Joseph Jett Sally, The Matrix Resurrections

9. Cam McLauchlin, Nightmare Alley

10. Tom Cross and Elliot Graham, No Time to Die

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Jana Carboni, Giuliano Mariano and Göran Lundström, House of Gucci

2. The team from Cruella

3. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune

4. Frances Hannon, The French Dispatch

5. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
   —

6. Cliona Furey and Jo-Ann MacNeil, Nightmare Alley

7. Teresa Hill and Ana Lozano, Being the Ricardos

8. Heba Thorisdottir and Janine Thompson, The Suicide Squad

9. The team from Spencer

10. Vickie Lang, Annette Field and Donald McInnes, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer, Dune

2. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog

3. Jonny Greenwood, Spencer

4. Nathan Johnson, Nightmare Alley

5. Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch
   —

6. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up

7. Carter Burwell, The Tragedy of Macbeth

8. The National, Cyrano

9. Daniel Pemberton, Being the Ricardos

10. Kris Bowers, King Richard

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die

2. “Colombia, Mi Encanto,” Encanto

3. “Be Alive,” King Richard

4. “Down to Joy,” Belfast

5. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home),” Respect
   —

6. “Beyond the Shore,” CODA

7. “At the Automat,” The Automat

8. “Every Letter,” Cyrano

9. “Guns Go Bang,” The Harder They Fall

10. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days

Best Production Design

1. Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune

2. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch

3. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley

4. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story

5. Arthur Max and Letizia Santucci, House of Gucci
   —

6. Jon Hutman and Ellen Brill, Being the Ricardos

7. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog

8. Guy Hendrix-Dyas and Yesim Zolan, Spencer

9. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth

10. Jim Clay and Claire Nia Richards, Belfast

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune

2. The team from West Side Story

3. Barry O’Sullivan, Dana A. Davis, Stephanie Flack, Matthias Lempert and Lars Ginzel, The Matrix Resurrections

4. Simon Chase, James Mather, Denise Yarde and Niv Adris, Belfast

5. Oliver Tarney, Paul Massey, David Giammarco, William Miller, Daniel Birch and Stéphanie Bucher, The Last Duel
   —

6. The team from A Quiet Place Part II

7. Jared Detsikes, Martin Pinsonnault, Stéphane Bergeron and Alexandra Fehrman, CODA

8. Nathan Robitaille, Jill Purdy, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Greg Chapman, Nightmare Alley

9. The team from No Time to Die

10. The team from Don’t Look Up

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune

2. Dan Glass, The Matrix Resurrections

3. The team from Spider-Man: No Way Home

4. The team from Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

5. The team from Finch
   —

6. The team from Free Guy

7. The team from Nightmare Alley

8. The team from Don’t Look Up

9. The team from No Time to Die

10. The team from Eternals

2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

Here we go again…

It feels like just yesterday that I was inexplicably making the case for Andra Day in Best Actress and clinging to the hope that, at last, it could be Diane Warren’s year in Best Original Song. (Though, let’s be fair, both may have come reasonably close.)

In years past, I’ve usually by this point released an opening set of Summer Oscar Predictions but, having seen a total of seven feature films thus far this year, let’s just say I haven’t been the most engaged or clamoring to dive into the season. Alas, there of course comes a point where I, Oscar nut, cannot help myself.

So, I have indeed assembled my first set of Oscar predictions, albeit just in the top eight categories for now. And what I love, right off the bat, is the crossover between these and my first set of predictions from the last cycle, which also sported the likes of C’mon C’mon, The Humans, Respect and West Side Story. What a haphazard time it’s been.

At this point in the season, I’m never terribly confident about too many contenders. In Best Picture, for instance, only Belfast and The Power of the Dog strike me as anything close to shoo-ins for nominations - and it seems completely within the realm of possibility that the Jane Campion picture, which isn’t without its detractors, could underperform a bit.

Dune and Nightmare Alley sure look ravishing, destined to dine on the technical categories, but how much will they factor into the top eight? For now, I suspect both do…to an extent. Likewise, we’re looking at big acting contenders like King Richard, Spencer and The Tragedy of Macbeth that may or not may prove formidable elsewhere.

There are a few hopefuls I’m not much sold on. Neither Ridley Scott picture (House of Gucci and The Last Duel) strikes me as poised to make a big splash, though you’ll see the first film scattered here and there in my predictions. Being the Ricardos reeks to me of impending misfire and Mass may be among the year’s best-acted films but it’s stuck with a distributor that’s never proven successful in playing the awards season game.

And there remain a number of question marks around category placement, perhaps most notably with Belfast’s Caitriona Balfe and Jamie Dornan, both of who can make the cut in either field. Macbeth’s Frances McDormand and Ricardos’ Javier Bardem are a couple of the other names who could seemingly go either way.

All that said, here are my hunches for now, ranked from most to least likely to be nominated. I’ll update these babies sometime later in the fall, at which point we’ll surely have some new contenders.

Who knows, perhaps Glenn Close gives a career-best turn in Swan Song. ;)

Best Picture

1. Belfast

2. The Power of the Dog

3. King Richard

4. Nightmare Alley

5. West Side Story

6. The Tragedy of Macbeth

7. Don’t Look Up

8. Licorice Pizza

9. CODA

10. Dune
    —

11. Spencer

12. C’mon C’mon

13. House of Gucci

14. The French Dispatch

15. The Lost Daughter

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
   —

6. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up

7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers

10. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard

Best Actress

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
   —

6. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up

8. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

10. Halle Berry, Bruised

Best Actor

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon

4. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
   —

6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

7. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey

8. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!

9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

10. Adam Driver, House of Gucci

Best Supporting Actress

1. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

2. Judi Dench, Belfast

3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
   —

6. Marlee Matlin, CODA

7. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

8. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

9. Ruth Negga, Passing

10. Ann Dowd, Mass

Best Supporting Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

2. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up

4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

5. Richard Jenkins, The Humans
   —

6. Jamie Dornan, Belfast

7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

8. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

9. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

10. Troy Kotsur, CODA

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up

4. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon

5. Zach Baylin, King Richard
   —

6. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers

7. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch

8. Steven Knight, Spencer

9. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God

10. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

4. Sian Heder, CODA

5. Stephen Karam, The Humans
   —

6. Rebecca Hall, Passing

7. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley

8. Tony Kushner, West Side Story

9. Becky Johnston and Roberto Bentivegna, House of Gucci

10. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune

FINAL 2020 Oscar Winner Predictions

Welp, here we go. It’s at last time to get off this dizzying, seemingly never-ending roller coaster ride of an awards season.

In spite of the pandemic, which pushed a plethora of contenders out of this year’s Oscar race and off to the next cycle, I’d say we ended up with a pretty robust set of nominees - and, fingers crossed in the end, winners. In addition to prime quality, this season has also proven exciting and unpredictable right up to the 11-’o-clock hour in several major categories, including a Best Actress showdown that’s all but impossible to project with confidence and will go down as an all-timer in competitiveness.

No need for an excessive intro - let’s just dive right into these lineups, an array of easy calls and flabbergasting head-scratchers…

Best Picture

1. Nomadland

2. Minari

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Promising Young Woman

5. Mank

6. Judas and the Black Messiah

7. The Father

8. Sound of Metal

If anything could have posed a legitimate threat to the Nomadland sweep, I suspect it would’ve been a Minari victory in SAG Ensemble. Instead, they went with The Trial of the Chicago 7, which lacks a Best Director nomination and is a film from Aaron Sorkin whose films, for whatever reason, tend to fall short with AMPAS. Promising Young Woman may win Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay, a plenty healthy combo, but I fear it may rank low, perhaps even last, on a fair chunk of ballots. In the end, this does look to be Nomadland’s to lose, though it’s not quite the slam dunk that is…

Best Director

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

3. David Fincher, Mank

4. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

5. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round

Signed, sealed, delivered - and deservedly so.

Best Actress

1. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Uh…not Kirby? Though anyone who claims confidence in forecasting this race has lost their damn mind. That said, here’s how I break it down. Yes, she triumphed at BAFTA, which gives her a clear edge over Kirby, but the urgency to award McDormand a third Oscar this soon - even if her film is prevailing in Best Picture - doesn’t really seem to be there. And she would’ve surely fallen short to Mulligan at BAFTA had they not done the blue ribbon panel thing. Davis won SAG, which is significant, but she’s also only lost there for an individual prize on one occasion, for Doubt. She truly is the Queen of the SAG Awards. But I just can’t predict her and her leading man to win without Ma Rainey in the Best Picture race - never has a film won these two prizes without the top nomination. If Davis were Oscar-less, this might be a different conversation. Ultimately, even with SAG and BAFTA going to other contenders, my gut says it’ll be Golden Globe winner Day or Critics Choice winner Mulligan taking home the Oscar. Day’s turn - a flashy, tour de force portrayal of a real-life entertainer - recalls recent Best Actress winners like Renee Zellweger and Marion Cotillard. But she’s also the lone nomination for a film that otherwise scored a mixed critical reception. Unlike Day, Mulligan’s film has other recognition - and in major categories to boot. But the momentum she should’ve scored from a BAFTA win was never able to come to fruition. Who knows what’ll happen - no matter who triumphs, it’ll feel like something of a surprise. But Day’s performance sure does check off a lot of the boxes that generally amount to an Oscar win.

Best Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

4. Steven Yeun, Minari

5. Gary Oldman, Mank

Hopkins has a smidge of late momentum with a BAFTA win and folks finally getting around to The Father via VOD. Boseman, however, remains the commanding favorite, even with Ma Rainey missing atop the ballot.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

4. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

5. Olivia Colman, The Father

With both SAG and BAFTA victories, Youn has more than just a touch of 11-’o-clock-hour momentum - she’s all but leaving her competition in the dust. Some AMPAS members may be inclined to help Close avoid tying Peter O’Toole’s 0-for-8 record as biggest Oscar loser among actors but she’s hardly supporting that cause by once again chatting up a Sunset Boulevard film. The boost Bakalova scored from the Critics Choice win seems to have largely dissipated and though Seyfried is actually running a terrific campaign, Mank feels DOA. ‘Tis a shame Colman hasn’t won anything for her devastating turn.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

2. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

5. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

The biggest acting shoo-in of the night - and no, Kaluuya won’t split votes with Stanfield.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Promising Young Woman

2. Minari

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Judas and the Black Messiah

5. Sound of Metal

If I’m Team Nomadland, I’m nervous if Minari or The Trial of the Chicago 7 picks this up, which is within the realm of possibility and could be indicative of a potential Best Picture upset. Alas, I still feel reasonably confident it’ll be Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA winner Emerald Fennell, especially since, as already stated, AMPAS is not head over heels for Sorkin.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Father

2. Nomadland

3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

4. One Night in Miami

5. The White Tiger

This feels like a legit coin flip between BAFTA winner The Father and Critics Choice winner Nomadland, with Borat perhaps a bit of a dark horse, less because of its WGA victory (The Father and Nomadland were ineligible) but more as a means of honoring Cohen’s robust year. Remarkable how sharply One Night in Miami faded over the course of the season - and even more perplexing that Ma Rainey missed the cut here.

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul

2. Wolfwalkers

3. Over the Moon

4. Onward

5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Much as I hesitate to use the l-word…lock.

Best Documentary Feature

1. My Octopus Teacher

2. Time

3. Collective

4. The Mole Agent

5. Crip Camp

While none of these can altogether be counted out, My Octopus Teacher, with PGA and BAFTA wins, is in the driver’s seat.

Best International Feature

1. Another Round (Denmark)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

3. Collective (Romania)

4. The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)

5. Better Days (Hong Kong)

With a Best Director bid to boot, Another Round should cruise to a comfortable victory. Poor Collective.

As for the following trio of categories, I can’t say I have ample commentary to share for each - other than to say, I have viewed the 15 nominees and will try to forecast based on what I suspect most floats AMPAS’ boat…

Best Animated Short Film

1. If Anything Happens I Love You

2. Opera

3. Burrow

4. Genius Loci

5. Yes-People

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. A Love Song for Latasha

2. A Concerto Is Not a Conversation

3. Colette

4. Hunger Ward

5. Do Not Split

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Letter Room

2. Two Distant Strangers

3. The Present

4. Feeling Through

5. White Eye

Best Cinematography

1. Nomadland

2. Mank

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Judas and the Black Messiah

5. News of the World

Yes, Mank triumphed with ASC but, barring a substantially weaker evening than expected for Nomadland - or a curiously more lively one for the Fincher film - expect the Zhao picture to pick this up.

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Emma

3. Mank

4. Mulan

5. Pinocchio

At last, a second win for the legendary Ann Roth!

Best Film Editing

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7

2. Sound of Metal

3. Nomadland

4. The Father

5. Promising Young Woman

Here’s the most suspenseful of the technical races. Promising Young Woman, while a worthy nominee, is probably not prevailing and nor is The Father (which would be my personal pick for the win). If AMPAS falls madly in love with Nomadland, it’s plausible Zhao scores what would likely be her fourth Oscar of the night - but even I’m not convinced they’ll go that bananas for it. If Chicago 7, which did score at ACE, is going to win anywhere, it’s probably here - and the improbable, albeit not impossible combo of this and an Original Screenplay win would spook the daylights out of Nomadland in Best Picture. It’s a close call between it and Sound of Metal, which recently scored at BAFTA and earlier tied Chicago 7 at Critics Choice. I’m inclined to say Chicago 7 by a hair, keeping it from a complete shutout.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Pinocchio

3. Hillbilly Elegy

4. Mank

5. Emma

The odds remain long but if Close somehow triumphs, perhaps Hillbilly Elegy will prevail here too, much like Meryl Streep and The Iron Lady back in the day. And if members go for the most makeup, Pinocchio might just pull this off. In the end, however, this remains Ma Rainey’s to lose.

Best Original Score

1. Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste, Soul

2. Emile Mosseri, Minari

3. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank

4. James Newton Howard, News of the World

5. Terence Blanchard, Da 5 Bloods

Don’t expect any Reznor-Ross vote-splitting here - it’ll be an easy, breezy win for Soul.

Best Original Song

1. “Io si (Seen),” The Life Ahead

2. “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

3. “Husavik,” Eurovision Song Contest

4. “Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah

5. “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7

Could it be? Could this at last be the year 11-time Oscar loser Diane Warren, composer of “Io si (Seen),” emerges triumphant? It just might. She picked up the Golden Globe and, while the HFPA and AMPAS don’t always line up in this category (they’ve matched six times over the past 10 years), it was a notable win that gave Warren’s campaign the oomph it needed to remain formidable. “Speak Now” looked like a slam dunk early on but One Night in Miami has overall seen its awards season relevancy dwindle. Its tune did triumph at Critics Choice but that membership also embraced the film more than AMPAS has. That isn’t to say “Speak Now” is down and out - if anything, this race strikes me as a legit coin flip - but the stars have aligned in a way that has rarely, if ever happened for Warren. If there’s a spoiler, it might just be the crowd-pleasing “Husavik,” that rare Best Original Song contender that isn’t simply played over the end credits.

Best Production Design

1. Mank

2. The Father

3. Tenet

4. News of the World

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank’s momentum vanished many moons ago but what could possibly top it here to result in an 0-for-10 shutout? The design on The Father is brilliant and nuanced but, in the end, odds are AMPAS eats up the Old Hollywood vibes and throws Mank a bone.

Best Sound

1. Sound of Metal

2. Soul

3. Mank

4. News of the World

5. Greyhound

Had Soul somehow made the Best Picture cut, I might consider it for an upset here. Alas, this should be a reasonably easy one for Sound of Metal.

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet

2. The Midnight Sky

3. Mulan

4. Love and Monsters

5. The One and Only Ivan

Reception for Tenet, critically and commercially, was lukewarm and Warner Bros. has barely campaigned for it but what’s the alternative?

2020 SAG Award Winner Predictions

Thank heaven for the SAG Awards. They’ll bring sorely needed clarity to what has been a whirlwind awards season, right?

Think again. If anything, I suspect the SAG Awards - my favorite awards season precursor of them all - are about to dig additional potholes onto the road to Oscar. Let’s dive into this…

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Minari

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4. Da 5 Bloods

5. One Night in Miami

With Best Picture front-runner (more like near-shoo-in at this point) Nomadland on the sidelines, the winner of this category will, more likely than not, emerge the most formidable threat to the Chloe Zhao film on Oscar night. One Night in Miami and, sadly, Da 5 Bloods, are hopeless here. Ma Rainey too is an extreme long shot, though, for reasons that will become clear in the next category, I don’t entirely discount it. Instead, this appears to be a barn burner between Minari, peaking at just the right time in the awards season and sporting two individual acting noms, and The Trial of the Chicago 7, the starry ensemble showcase that seems to be more sputtering than surging in momentum. The latter can still totally pull this off but my gut says Minari.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

5. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

If there’s one reason I have Ma Rainey ahead of Da 5 Bloods and One Night in Miami in Best Ensemble, it’s this - not only do I have Chadwick Boseman triumphing in Best Actor, I also have his leading lady taking home Best Actress. With four wins on five individual SAG nominations (she’s only fallen short for Doubt), Davis is an unimpeachable SAG favorite. Moreover, the film’s Ensemble bid indicates healthy support among members for Ma Rainey itself, which is more than can be said for Mulligan’s picture, which missed despite a sprawling cast of recognizable and well-utilized faces. With a Critics Choice win under her belt, Mulligan feels likes the current Oscar favorite, albeit a tentative one - and I suspect that standing is about to further soften. While not entirely out, McDormand or Kirby would be a surprise here, though nonetheless remain in the hunt for the Oscar. Adams will go 0-for-7 in individual SAG bids.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

3. Steven Yeun, Minari

4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

5. Gary Oldman, Mank

No contest, even with folks finally getting around to Hopkins’ turn on VOD.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

2. Yuh-jung Youn, Minari

3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

4. Olivia Colman, The Father

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World

Here, on the other hand, is a real race. Zengel, who missed with the Oscars, hasn’t a prayer and Colman sadly just never took off this awards season in terms of wins. This looks to be a three-way showdown among Close, the beloved actor’s actor who’s twice triumphed with SAG individual wins and whose film was respected enough by members to land a Best Actress nom for her co-star; Youn, the fellow veteran actor and lone contender from a Best Ensemble nominee; and Bakalova, the newcomer who has some momentum with the Critics Choice win and whose picture continues to flaunt surprising awards season strength. My feeling is if voters liked Hillbilly Elegy enough to nominate Adams’ polarizing turn, they probably admire it enough to give Close’s less divisive performance the win. But it’s just as easy to fathom Youn triumphing if her film is doing the same in Ensemble. If Bakalova wins here, she’s likely unstoppable for the Oscar.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

2. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Leslie Odom, Jr. One Night in Miami

5. Jared Leto, The Little Things

Like Best Actor, this isn’t much of a race, though if the sentiment is overwhelming enough, I suppose it’s not entirely impossible for Boseman to earn two posthumous prizes, especially with Da 5 Bloods managing the Best Ensemble nom. Still, Kaluuya remains the commanding favorite, both here and at the Oscars. The other three, forget it.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Wonder Woman 1984

2. Mulan

3. Da 5 Bloods

4. News of the World

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

The last three winners in this category were Avengers: Endgame, Black Panther and Wonder Woman, so it’s tough to bet against the superhero flick, though I wouldn’t completely count out Mulan. The Chicago 7 nomination makes me giggle.

2020 Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

In the words of the great Barry Manilow, looks like we made it.

On the heels of the most deliciously dizzying awards season I can recall, culminating in the absolute madness that was the BAFTA nominations, we will at last be graced with Oscar nominations this coming Monday. And jaws will again drop because, frankly, big snubs are just unavoidable, particularly in the category of Best Supporting Actress, which has proven chaotic to the point where there’s barely consensus on two or three likely nominees, let alone four or five. But we’ll get there shortly.

While Oscar noms morning could prove me wrong, my sense is the following films have peaked at just the right time in terms of awards season momentum: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland and Promising Young Woman. It would be flabbergasting to witness the latter three films not earn a plethora of recognition and while Judas may not be making the cut in say, Best Director or Best Actor, it almost surely will not sport a lone nom for star Daniel Kaluuya (something I’d feared earlier in the season).

I don’t get that same feeling of momentum from the likes of Mank and One Night in Miami, which are still poised to earn their fair share of nominations but no longer ring as formidable for major wins. Worse off are contenders like Da 5 Bloods and News of the World, which were presumed strong earlier in the season but now may not make much of a splash at all in Oscar noms.

In terms of surprises, one gut feeling I can’t seem to shake is an Aaron Sorkin snub in Best Director, with Regina King edging him out. For whatever reason, AMPAS has a history of sidelining Sorkin when he’s expected to make the cut - healthy precursor runs for A Few Good Men, The American President, Charlie Wilson’s War and Steve Jobs did not produce Oscar nominations. I’d also keep a close eye on Shaka King perhaps grabbing that slot.

I don’t sense shocks are on the horizon in the two lead acting categories, though Mads Mikkelsen should be watched in Best Actor and several contenders could grab that fifth slot in Best Actress that I suspect ultimately goes to Andra Day, even if she missed at SAG and BAFTA. How sad it is that the magnificent Delroy Lindo and Sophia Loren are now improbable long shots!

As for the two supporting fields, well…it’s a hot mess.

Best Supporting Actor is a tad less haphazard, in that it at least sports three contenders - Daniel Kaluuya, Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sacha Baron Cohen - who resemble shoo-ins. Beyond that, it’s a free-for-all among Chadwick Boseman, Alan Kim, Jared Leto, Paul Raci and David Strathairn for the final two slots, with Bill Murray perhaps still somewhat in contention, though On the Rocks has steeply faded in awards season relevancy. While I’m terrified to jinx them, my gut does say it’s Raci and Strathairn taking the two spots. God help us if Leto makes it.

Then…deep breath…there’s Best Supporting Actress, a category I’ve found myself hopelessly staring at in recent days, at a loss of how to properly gauge.

While neither is quite on the level of say, Kaluuya, in terms of a nomination lock, I do think both Olivia Colman and Youn Yuh-jung are reasonably safe bets, particularly if Minari is in for a strong overall showing. Beyond that, it’s a nightmare.

Maria Bakalova checked off all the boxes precursors-wise but AMPAS’ historical aversion to comedy won’t be a breeze to overcome. Ellen Burstyn is an AMPAS favorite and surfaced at Critics Choice but what should’ve been an easy SAG nomination turned into a stunning, campaign-derailing snub. Glenn Close landed at the Globes, Critics Choice and SAG but it remains unclear whether she can withstand the hideous Hillbilly Elegy reviews to an eighth career Oscar nom. Dominique Fishback has been mostly MIA this season but her film is peaking at the right time and she just surfaced at BAFTA. Jodie Foster pulled the Globes upset but hasn’t really shown up elsewhere, including at BAFTA where her film was otherwise embraced. Amanda Seyfried once seemed like a surefire contender for the win here but that SAG snub changed everything. And last but hardly least, Helena Zengel landed at the Globes and SAG but News of the World hasn’t exactly set the awards season on fire.

You could make a convincing case with any trio here, though I do think Burstyn and Zengel are perhaps sitting in a slightly lower tier. I’m sticking with Close, who checked off the boxes she needed with CC/GG/SAG, and Seyfried, whose film should make a nice showing in nominations, even if it’s doomed in terms of wins. And then I’ve got Fishback in the final slot, edging out Bakalova and Foster. This is based on the presumption Judas has an overall marvelous morning - if it doesn’t, Fishback likely misses and Bakalova takes it.

Downballot, keep an eye on the exceedingly tight race for the fifth slot in Best Adapted Screenplay, where Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, First Cow, News of the World and The White Tiger are duking it out. Watch too Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7 in the technical categories - if they are to stand a fighting chance against Nomadland for the top prize, following a SAG Ensemble win for one of them, they’ll want to build as robust as possible an all-around show of support (in the way Parasite’s Film Editing and Production Design noms were indicative of widespread love and thus a legit shot at Best Picture).

So, I think I’ll leave it there. Bottom line is we’re not in for a snoozefest come Monday morning - albeit not quite the insanity of what BAFTA offered up but a slate of nominees that nonetheless inspires at least a handful of gasps.

Who do you have making the cut?

Best Picture

1. Nomadland

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Mank

4. Minari

5. Promising Young Woman

6. One Night in Miami

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

8. The Father

9. Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

10. Soul

11. Sound of Metal

12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday

13. Da 5 Bloods

14. News of the World

15. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Director

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. David Fincher, Mank

3. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

4. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami
   —

6. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah

8. Florian Zeller, The Father

9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World

Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
   —

6. Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot

7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

8. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie

9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

10. Yeri Han, Minari

Best Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

4. Steven Yeun, Minari

5. Gary Oldman, Mank
   —

6. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round

7. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

8. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Father

2. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

5. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

7. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian

8. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

9. Helena Zengel, News of the World

10. Priyanka Chopra Jonas, The White Tiger

Best Supporting Actor

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

5. David Strathairn, Nomadland
   —

6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

7. Jared Leto, The Little Things

8. Alan Kim, Minari

9. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

10. Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Screenplay

1. Minari

2. Promising Young Woman

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Mank

5. Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

6. Soul

7. Sound of Metal

8. Da 5 Bloods

9. Palm Springs

10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland

2. The Father

3. One Night in Miami

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
   —

6. The White Tiger

7. News of the World

8. First Cow

9. The Mauritanian

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul

2. Wolfwalkers

3. Over the Moon

4. Onward

5. The Willoughbys
   —

6. The Croods: A New Age

7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

8. Earwig and the Witch

9. No. 7 Cherry Lane

10. Bombay Rose

Best Documentary Feature

1. Time

2. Collective

3. Welcome to Chechnya

4. The Truffle Hunters

5. The Painter and the Thief
   —

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy

7. Dick Johnson Is Dead

8. Boys State

9. My Octopus Teacher

10. Crip Camp

Best International Feature

1. Another Round

2. Quo Vadis, Aida?

3. Collective

4. La Llorana

5. Night of the Kings
   —

6. A Sun

7. The Mole Agent

8. Two of Us

9. The Man Who Sold His Skin

10. Hope

Best Animated Short Film

1. If Anything Happens, I Love You

2. Out

3. Opera

4. The Snail and the Whale

5. To Gerard
   —

6. Kapaemahu

7. Genius Loci

8. Burrow

9. Traces

10. Yes-People

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. A Love Song for Latasha

2. Hunger Ward

3. The Speed Cubers

4. A Concerto is a Conversation

5. Colette
   —

6. What Would Sophia Loren Do?

7. Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa

8. Do Not Split

9. Call Center Blues

10. Hysterical Girl

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Letter Room

2. Da Yie

3. Bittu

4. The Human Voice

5. The Present
   —

6. Two Distant Strangers

7. White Eye

8. The Kicksled Choir

9. Feeling Through

10. The Van

Best Cinematography

1. Nomadland

2. Mank

3. News of the World

4. Judas and the Black Messiah

5. Minari
   —

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Tenet

8. Da 5 Bloods

9. Cherry

10. The Midnight Sky

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Mank

3. Emma

4. Ammonite

5. Mulan
   —

6. Promising Young Woman

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday

8. The Personal History of David Copperfield

9. Birds of Prey

10. One Night in Miami

Best Film Editing

1. Nomadland

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Mank

4. Minari

5. Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

6. Promising Young Woman

7. Sound of Metal

8. The Father

9. Tenet

10. News of the World

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Mank

3. Hillbilly Elegy

4. Birds of Prey

5. Emma
   —

6. Pinocchio

7. One Night in Miami

8. The Little Things

9. The Glorias

10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

Best Original Score

1. Soul

2. Mank

3. News of the World

4. Minari

5. The Midnight Sky
   —

6. The Little Things

7. Promising Young Woman

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7

9. Tenet

10. The Life Ahead

Best Original Song

1. “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

2. “Io Si (Seen),” The Life Ahead

3. “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. “Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah

5. “Turntables,” All In: The Fight for Democracy
   —

6. “Rain Song,” Minari

7. “Wuhan Flu,” Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

8. “Make It Work,” Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

9. “Loyal Brave True,” Mulan

10. “Husavik,” Eurovision Song Contest

Best Production Design

1. Mank

2. The Father

3. News of the World

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Emma
   —

6. Tenet

7. Mulan

8. Birds of Prey

9. The Personal History of David Copperfield

10. The Midnight Sky

Best Sound

1. Sound of Metal

2. Soul

3. Mank

4. News of the World

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
   —

6. Greyhound

7. Tenet

8. Nomadland

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7

10. The Midnight Sky

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet

2. The Midnight Sky

3. Welcome to Chechnya

4. The One and Only Ivan

5. Birds of Prey
   —

6. Soul

7. Mank

8. Mulan

9. Bloodshot

10. Love and Monsters