FINAL 2021 Oscar Winner Predictions

We are so close!

Come Sunday, this awards season, a largely exasperating endeavor that has sported some marvelous movies but not always brought out the best in film fans, will come to a close.

As we reach a conclusion, many categories appear all but completely sewn up, including a trio of acting awards, handful of technical prizes and honors for directing, where no one has surfaced to pose a real threat to Jane Campion.

There does, however, remain a fair share of suspense, including in the top category, where SAG, PGA and WGA victories have catapulted CODA (for the record, my favorite film of the year) from underdog to potential winner. Without a doubt, it has surged at precisely the right time, sporting momentum just as voters are taking to their ballots. The question remains, however - can CODA, with its mere trio of nominations, really take down 12-time nominee The Power of the Dog?

It’s a plenty plausible outcome, especially with the curveball of a preferential ballot. But it remains unclear whether voters in the craft categories, who are clearly fond of The Power of the Dog, are all that taken with CODA. (Pre-PGA, I suspected Belfast, which did muster a healthy spread of Oscar noms, would prove the greatest threat.) They may be - and it’s not as if films devoid of technical nominations are instantly doomed in Best Picture.

But much as I’d love to predict CODA, I cannot get past The Power of the Dog’s haul on nominations morning. If it may not rack up much in the way of wins, we have unimpeachable evidence, through these noms, that broad support exists for the Campion picture.

Then there’s the Best Actress situation, where Jessica Chastain, with SAG and Critics’ Choice wins, now looks like the one to beat. No doubt, she is very well-positioned, especially as the category’s lone nominee without an Oscar win.

Chastain is not, however, a shoo-in on the level of Will Smith, Ariana DeBose and Troy Kotsur. Her film was neither a critical nor commercial hit and her competition, with the possible exception of Nicole Kidman, has fiercely passionate supporters. It’s just not terribly clear who the alternative to Chastain would be. It may just be Olivia Colman, who has scored a Best Actress upset before and whose film has a tad more AMPAS support than Chastain’s. Had The Lost Daughter made it into Best Picture, I’d likely be predicting her here.

Both screenwriting categories remain unsettled, made all the more chaotic by WGA inexplicably going for Don’t Look Up. At this point, Belfast’s one remaining hope likely lies in that category, Best Original Screenplay. If CODA scores Best Adapted Screenplay, expect it to go all the way in Best Picture. I suppose it could still take top honors without it…but not terribly likely.

Down the ballot, keep an eye on Flee in its trio of categories, all of which it’s tragically poised to finish 2nd or 3rd in. The shorts seem to have modest front-runners this year but are always ripe for upsets.

In the craft categories, suspense remains in several fields, including Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score, Best Original Song and Best Production Design. If The Power of the Dog can muster anything in the technical races, take that as an exceedingly strong sign that it’s prevailing in Picture. It’s also down the ballot where surprise Best Picture nominee Nightmare Alley may have a prayer to score a trophy or two.

So, that’s that. Let’s get to it - below are my final Oscar winner predictions, ranked from most to least likely to win. Fingers crossed we’re in for a ceremony that isn’t an awe-inspiring trainwreck - and that discourse among film fans post-ceremony is a little more civil than it’s all too proven pre-Oscars.

Good luck! :)

Best Picture

1. The Power of the Dog

2. CODA

3. Belfast

4. King Richard

5. West Side Story

6. Dune

7. Licorice Pizza

8. Don’t Look Up

9. Drive My Car

10. Nightmare Alley

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

4. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Best Actress

1. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

5. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Best Actor

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... BOOM!

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

4. Judi Dench, Belfast

5. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Best Supporting Actor

1. Troy Kotsur, CODA

2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

3. Ciarán Hinds, Belfast

4. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

5. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up

4. Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World

5. Zach Baylin, King Richard

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Sian Heder, CODA

3. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

4. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car

5. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto

2. The Mitchells vs. The Machines

3. Flee

4. Luca

5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Best Animated Short Film

1. Robin Robin

2. Affairs of the Art

3. The Windshield Wiper

4. Bestia

5. BoxBallet

Best Documentary Feature

1. Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

2. Flee

3. Writing with Fire

4. Attica

5. Ascension

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. The Queen of Basketball

2. Audible

3. Lead Me Home

4. Three Songs for Benazir

5. When We Were Bullies

Best International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)

2. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

3. Flee (Denmark)

4. The Hand of God (Italy)

5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Long Goodbye

2. Ala Kachuu - Take and Run

3. On My Mind

4. The Dress

5. Please Hold

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune

2. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog

3. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley

4. Janusz Kamiński, West Side Story

5. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Costume Design

1. Jenny Beavan, Cruella

2. Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan, Dune

3. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story

4. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley

5. Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran, Cyrano

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune

2. Pamela Martin, King Richard

3. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog

4. Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM!

5. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2. Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon, Cruella

3. Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America

4. Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras, House of Gucci

5. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune

Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer, Dune

2. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog

3. Germaine Franco, Encanto

4. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up

5. Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die

2. "Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto

3. “Be Alive,” King Richard

4. “Down to Joy,” Belfast

5. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days

Best Production Design

1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley

2. Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune

3. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. Adam Stockhausen and: Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story

5. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune

2. Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor, No Time to Die

3. Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story

4. Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb, The Power of the Dog

5. Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri, Belfast

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune

2. Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home

3. Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die

4. Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy

5. Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

2021 SAG Award Winner Predictions

In an already topsy-turvy awards season, this year’s SAG nominations only made the road to Oscar noms morning all the more unsettled.

Beyond The Power of the Dog and West Side Story, both considered shoo-ins for Best Ensemble bids, falling short in contention for the top prize, we also saw the likes of Kristen Stewart (Spencer), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) and both Belfast gentlemen (Ciaran Hinds & Jamie Dornan) see their awards season standings deflate. Of course Stewart, Ellis and Hinds ultimately scored Oscar noms - but their SAG snubs have made it exceedingly unlikely they can triumph on the big night.

Will the SAG winners offer more clarity in terms of this season’s Oscar frontrunners? Maybe…or maybe not. Let’s just go ahead and dive into each race here.

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. CODA

2. Belfast

3. Don’t Look Up

4. King Richard

5. House of Gucci

While it scored two acting noms here, it is not likely House of Gucci, which landed a mere one Oscar nomination (in Best Makeup and Hairstyling), will take top honors here. Likewise, it’s tough to fathom King Richard taking this when Ellis couldn’t make the cut. This strikes me as a barn burner among the remaining three contenders. Don’t Look Up has the sort of sprawling, starry cast that often takes this category and, among SAG members, it’s probably the most-seen of these nominees. It’s also, however, among the year’s most polarizing contenders and it failed to land a solo acting nomination. Belfast looks to perhaps be The Power of the Dog’s greatest threat for Best Picture honors, with writer/director Kenneth Branagh & Focus Features running the most robust of campaigns. It did, however, only score one acting nomination here, for Caitríona Balfe (who didn’t even make the Oscar cut). If that’s all it could muster, is the enthusiasm that strong among actors? And then there’s CODA, which didn’t see the AMPAS support that the likes of Belfast and King Richard scored, but has nonetheless emerged one of the season’s great crowd-pleasers, with sturdy, if modest, support across the precursors. It’s a tough call but, with Belfast and Don’t Look Up underperforming what I suspected they’d net here, I think the little dark horse might just take it.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Hudson, fabulous as she is, won’t be taking this. Actors have triumphed at SAG in spite of Oscar snubs - but it’s extremely rare. So, much as SAG may be keen on House of Gucci, it’s a very uphill climb for Gaga. Chastain cannot be entirely counted out but is there that much passion out there for the performance? (There certainly isn’t for her film itself.) In the end, this strikes me as a barn burner between Kidman and Colman, neither of whom has won an individual SAG prize for film. Had Kidman been the lone nominee for her film here, I’d be inclined to side with Colman, whose film and performance have earned warmer notices. Alas, with co-star Javier Bardem making the cut, I suspect the Being the Ricardos love is just strong enough among members for Kidman to score the edge.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

While I suspect Cumberbatch triumphs at BAFTA and has a real shot at the Oscar, Smith, whose film has a Best Ensemble nom (unlike Cumberbatch), should have it made in the shade here. The others won’t come close.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

3. Caitríona Balfe, Belfast

4. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

5. Ruth Negga, Passing

Post-Oscar noms, this is a rather odd lineup to assess. Three of these contenders - Balfe, Blanchett and Negga - missed the Oscar cut. There has been exactly one non-Oscar nominee to take this category at SAG - Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), who benefitted from eventual Oscar winner Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)’s bizarre snub. It is exceedingly unlikely, barring robust rallying around Belfast, that any of this trio will pull a Blunt. That leaves DeBose and Dunst, both Oscar nominees whose films inexplicably missed in Best Ensemble here. Many pundits will point to issues around screener distribution to SAG members as the reason for West Side Story’s snub - that had 20th Century not strangely stumbled, the film would’ve earned more support. Considering DeBose made the cut, I find that argument a tad shaky…but it’s nonetheless tough to not predict her here, especially given the more surprising Power of the Dog snub. It may be close, especially given the countless number of actors Dunst has worked with, but still, bank on DeBose.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Troy Kotsur, CODA

2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

3. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

5. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

Affleck, whose film landed without a hint of fanfare, can be safely counted out here. Cooper may be increasingly overdue at the Oscars but he hasn’t proven quite as beloved among SAG members, falling short on individual noms for American Hustle and American Sniper. So, it’s tough to fathom him having a prayer without the Oscar nom - and it’s about as difficult to picture Razzie nominee Leto prevailing, even with SAG members eating up Gucci. As may be the case on Oscar night, this looks to be a close call between Smit-McPhee, who’s largely steamrolled the precursors thus far, and Kotsur, who never really took off among the critics’ awards but nonetheless sports the sort of irresistibly heartwarming turn that is so easy to picture as a Best Supporting Actor winner. With CODA making the Best Ensemble cut, I’m inclined to give Kotsur the edge - and if he does take it, he might just go all the way to the Oscar.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Dune

2. No Time to Die

3. The Matrix Resurrections

4. Black Widow

5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Dune’s the obvious call, though No Time to Die cannot be entirely counted out. Skyfall did take this category in 2012, albeit against competition not nearly as fierce as Dune - and they didn’t even bother with nominations for Quantum of Solace and Spectre.

FINAL 2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions

We’re so close.

It’s been the oddest of awards seasons, as we venture into Oscar nominations morning without the usual pomp and circumstance from the Golden Globes (held but not televised) and Critics’ Choice Awards (delayed and will later be televised). While the critics’ awards, guild awards and BAFTA have given us a fair idea of what to likely expect from AMPAS, it nonetheless feels like this awards season never had a proper kickoff. With Tuesday’s announcement, this will change.

A healthy sense of suspense remains ahead of the nominations. We know, of course, that the likes of Belfast, Dune, The Power of the Dog and West Side Story are poised for strong showings…but just how robust will their hauls prove? And are the likes of Kenneth Branagh and Steven Spielberg really shoo-ins in Best Director or could more surprises be on the horizon there than anticipated?

Contenders like CODA, King Richard and Licorice Pizza all seem destined for at least modest batches of nominations, while the likes of Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci, tick, tick…BOOM! and The Tragedy of Macbeth could finish strong or just as easily underwhelm. And you can’t count out a film like No Time to Die, which doesn’t ring of traditional Oscar fare but has seen an exceedingly healthy awards season run in the technical fields.

The acting categories remain awfully unsettled, with Lead Actor perhaps the most set in stone and sporting just one competitive slot. Despite some BAFTA battiness, Lady Gaga, Nicole Kidman and Olivia Colman seem reasonably safe over in Lead Actress, as does Jessica Chastain, albeit to a little lesser extent. That final slot feels like a jump ball among half a dozen (or more!) contenders.

The Supporting fields are tougher to forecast, with really just two contenders in each - Ariana DeBose & Caitriona Balfe and Kodi Smit-McPhee & Troy Kotsur - looking safe. BAFTA and SAG snubs have cast mild doubt on Kirsten Dunst and Aunjanue Ellis, though odds are both make the cut. And while I remain anxious that Passing may be in for a shutout on nominations morning, it’s tough to argue Ruth Negga, who’s had a nice precursors run, isn’t poised for a slot. There are, however, several strong contenders right on her heels.

Over in Supporting Actor, Jared Leto and Bradley Cooper have high name rec and grace films destined for recognition across a variety of categories, while the likes of Mike Faist and/or Jesse Plemons could sneak in if AMPAS goes especially gaga for one of their films. The Belfast buzz doesn’t seem potent enough for double nominations in either category.

Down in the technical fields, expect lots of Dune, West Side Story and, as earlier mentioned, No Time to Die, which could rack up half a dozen or more nominations when all is said and done.

All that said, let’s just dive right into it - final Oscar nom predictions of the season, from most to least likely to earn a nomination. In countless cases, a contender has moved up or down from my last forecast - or bolted from its category entirely.

Enjoy! :)

Best Picture

1. The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Dune (+3)

3. Licorice Pizza (+1)

4. Belfast (-1)

5. West Side Story (-3)

6. Don’t Look Up (+3)

7. CODA (-1)

8. King Richard (-1)

9. Drive My Car (+6)

10. House of Gucci (NEW)
    —

11. tick, tick…BOOM! (-3)

12. Being the Ricardos (+1)

13. The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)

14. The Lost Daughter (-3)

15. No Time to Die (NEW)

DROPPED
Nightmare Alley (-4)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (-2)

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (+1)

3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (+1)

4. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (+1)

5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (-3)
   —

6. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-)

7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (+2)

8. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-)

9. Siân Heder, CODA (-3)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (-)

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (+2)

2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (+2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (-1)

4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (+3)

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (-)
   —

6. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (-)

7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (+3)

8. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (-7)

9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (-1)

10. Emilia Jones, CODA (-1)

Best Actor

1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Will Smith, King Richard (-)

3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-)

4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM! (-)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (+1)
   —

6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (NEW)

7. Mahershala Ali, Swan Song (NEW)

8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (-1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon (-3)

10. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (-)

DROPPED
Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (-3)
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (+1)

2. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (+2)

3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (-2)

4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (-1)

5. Ruth Negga, Passing (+2)
   —

6. Ann Dowd, Mass (+3)

7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (-1)

8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (NEW)

9. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (NEW)

10. Marlee Matlin, CODA (-2)

DROPPED
Judi Dench, Belfast (-6)
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (-4)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (-)

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (-)

4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (+2)

5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (+2)
   —

6. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (+4)

7. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (-2)

8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (+1)

9. Mike Faist, West Side Story (-1)

10. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (-6)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (-)

2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-)

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up (-)

4. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos (+4)

5. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch (-)
   —

6. Zach Baylin, King Richard (-2)

7. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (+2)

8. Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World (NEW)

9. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (-2)

10. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon (-4)

DROPPED
Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Tony Kushner, West Side Story (-)

3. Sian Heder, CODA (-)

4. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car (-)
   —

6. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune (+3)

7. Steven Levenson, tick, tick... BOOM! (-)

8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-2)

9. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley (+1)

10. Rebecca Hall, Passing (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto (-)

2. Luca (+1)

3. Raya and the Last Dragon (+1)

4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (+4)

5. Flee (-3)
   —

6. Belle (-1)

7. Sing 2 (+2)

8. The Summit of the Gods (-1)

9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (+1)

10. Vivo (-4)

Best Animated Short Film

1. Us Again (+7)

2. Robin Robin (+7)

3. Affairs of the Art (-2)

4. Step into the River (-)

5. Bestia (-3)
   —

6. Mum Is Pouring Rain (-3)

7. Namoo (-1)

8. The Windshield Wiper (-1)

9. Souvenir Souvenir (+1)

10. The Musician (-5)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Flee (-)

2. The Rescue (+1)

3. The First Wave (+1)

4. Procession (+4)

5. Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (+4)
   —

6. Summer Of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (-4)

7. The Velvet Underground (NEW)

8. Attica (+2)

9. Simple as Water (-2)

10. Julia (NEW)

DROPPED
Faya Dayi (-6)
Writing with Fire (-5)

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. The Queen of Basketball (+8)

2. Audible (NEW)

3. Terror Contagion (NEW)

4. Sophie & the Baron (+1)

5. Águilas (-4)
   —

6. Three Songs for Benazir (-4)

7. A Broken House (-4)

8. Lead Me Home (-2)

9. Day of Rage (-2)

10. Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis (-2)

DROPPED
Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day” (-7)
The Facility (-1)

Best International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan) (-)

2. Flee (Denmark) (-)

3. The Worst Person in the World (Norway) (+2)

4. A Hero (Iran) (-1)

5. The Hand of God (Italy) (-1)
   —

6. Compartment No. 6 (Finland) (-)

7. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) (+2)

8. Playground (Belgium) (+2)

9. I’m Your Man (Germany) (-2)

10. Hive (Kosovo) (NEW)

DROPPED
Lamb (Iceland) (-3)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. Under the Heavens (+9)

2. Les Grandes Claques (-)

3. When the Sun Sets (NEW)

4. The Long Goodbye (+2)

5. Censor of Dreams (+2)
   —

6. The Criminals (-5)

7. Frimas (-4)

8. Stenofonen (-4)

9. You’re Dead Hélène (-4)

10. The Dress (-2)

DROPPED
Distances (-2)

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune (-)

2. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog (-)

3. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+2)

4. Haris Zambarloukos, Belfast (-)

5. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley (+1)
   —

6. Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story (-3)

7. Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman, Licorice Pizza (-)

8. Linus Sandgren, No Time to Die (NEW)

9. Claire Mithon, Spencer (-1)

10. Robert Yeoman, The French Dispatch (-1)

DROPPED
Eduard Grau, Passing (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Jenny Beavan, Cruella (+1)

2. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley (+1)

3. Janty Yates, House of Gucci (+1)

4. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story (-1)

5. Jacqueline West, Dune (+1)
   —

6. Massimo Cantini Parrini, Cyrano (+2)

7. Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch (-)

8. Jacqueline Durran, Spencer (-5)

9. Suttirat Anne Larlarb, No Time to Die (NEW)

10. Kirsty Cameron, The Power of the Dog (-)

DROPPED
Susan Lyall, Being the Ricardos (-2)

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune (-)

2. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog (-)

3. Andy Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza (+1)

4. Tom Cross and Elliot Graham, No Time to Die (+2)

5. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, West Side Story (-2)
   —

6. Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, Belfast (-1)

7. Pamela Martin, King Richard (-)

8. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up (-)

9. Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM! (-)

10. Alan Baumgarten, Being the Ricardos (NEW)

DROPPED
Geraud Brisson, CODA (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Jana Carboni, Giuliano Mariano and Göran Lundström, House of Gucci (-)

2. Nadia Stacey and Carolyn Cousins, Cruella (+3)

3. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (-)

4. Heba Thorisdottir and Janine Thompson, The Suicide Squad (+2)

5. Vera Steimberg, Merc Arceneaux, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America (+2)
   —

6. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune (-2)

7. Cliona Furey and Jo-Ann MacNeil, Nightmare Alley (-5)

8. Sian Miller and Alessandro Bertolazzi, Cyrano (+1)

9. Judy Chin and Kay Georgiou, West Side Story (-1)

10. Daniel Phillips, No Time to Die (-)

Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer, Dune (+1)

2. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog (-1)

3. Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch (+1)

4. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up (+5)

5. Carter Burwell, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+1)
   —

6. Germaine Franco, Encanto (-1)

7. Hans Zimmer, No Time to Die (NEW)

8. Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers (-1)

9. Daniel Pemberton, Being the Ricardos (-1)

10. Jonny Greenwood, Spencer (-7)

DROPPED
Kris Bowers, King Richard (-1)

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die (-)

2. “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto (-)

3. “Down to Joy,” Belfast (-)

4. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home),” Respect (+1)

5. “Beyond the Shore,” CODA (+1)
   —

6. “Be Alive,” King Richard (-2)

7. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days (+1)

8. “Just Look Up,” Don’t Look Up (+1)

9. “So May We Start,” Annette (-2)

10. “Your Song Saved My Life,” Sing 2 (NEW)

DROPPED
“Right Where I Belong,” Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley (+2)

2. Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune (-1)

3. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story (-1)

4. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch (+1)

5. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+3)
   —

6. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog (-2)

7. Arthur Max and Letizia Santucci, House of Gucci (-1)

8. Mark Tildesley and Veronique Melery, No Time to Die (NEW)

9. Florencia Martin and Ryan Watson, Licorice Pizza (NEW)

10. Jon Hutman and Ellen Brill, Being the Ricardos (-1)

DROPPED
Guy Hendrix-Dyas and Yesim Zolan, Spencer (-4)
Jim Clay and Claire Nia Richards, Belfast (-1)

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune (-)

2. Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Tod Maitland and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story (-)

3. Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney and Paul Massey, No Time to Die (+2)

4. Willie Burton, Kevin O’Connell, Tony Lambert, Steven Ticknor and Vanessa Lapato, Spider-Man: No Way Home (-)

5. Ethan Van Der Ryn, Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky and Brandon Proctor, A Quiet Place Part II (+3)
   —

6. Paul Hsu and Todd A. Maitland, tick, tick...BOOM! (-)

7. Robert Mackenzie, Richard Flynn, Leah Katz, Tara Webb and Dave Whitehead, The Power of the Dog (-4)

8. Julian Slater, Dan Morgan, Colin Nicolson, Tim Cavagin, Last Night in Soho (+2)

9. Barry O’Sullivan, Dana A. Davis, Stephanie Flack, Matthias Lempert and Lars Ginzel, The Matrix Resurrections (-)

10. Simon Chase, James Mather, Denise Yarde and Niv Adris, Belfast (-3)

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune (-)

2. Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home (-)

3. Charlie Noble and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die (+3)

4. Dan Glass, Huw J Evans, Tom Debenham and J.D. Schwalm, The Matrix Resurrections (-1)

5. Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Walker, Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (-1)
   —

6. Stephane Ceretti, Daniele Bigi, Matt Aitken and Neil Corbould, Eternals (+1)

7. Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy (-2)

8. John Desjardin, Bryan Hirota, Kevin Smith and Mike Meinardus, Godzilla vs. Kong (-)

9. Alessandro Ongaro, Sheena Duggal, Aharon Bourland and Pier Lefebvre, Ghostbusters: Afterlife (-)

10. Geoffrey Baumann, Dave Hodgins, Craig Hammack and Paul Corbould, Black Widow (-)

2021 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

Let’s just tell it like it is. The SAG Awards are the best awards.

From the brilliant likes of The Birdcage and Black Panther triumphing for Best Ensemble honors to countless inspired acting nominees, among them amazing curveballs like Michelle Pfeiffer (White Oleander), Hank Azaria (The Birdcage, which they just adored) and Gena Rowlands & Marisa Tomei (Unhook the Stars), SAG has a history of delivering the goods in fun and surprising ways.

Is SAG about to throw its usual wrenches into this awards season? Let’s dive into each category with some predictions.

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Belfast

2. The Power of the Dog

3. West Side Story

4. Don’t Look Up

5. CODA
   —

6. Licorice Pizza

7. The French Dispatch

8. King Richard

9. Mass

10. House of Gucci

Given their formidable awards season performances thus far, it would be truly stunning to see any of Belfast, The Power of the Dog or West Side Story miss here. Beyond that trio, this is a tough one to forecast. Don’t Look Up and The French Dispatch have the sprawling, starry ensembles but the former is proving one of the year’s most polarizing contenders, while the latter hasn’t been an especially robust player at all. CODA and Licorice Pizza seem safer for Best Picture Oscar noms and could have enough support to edge out the splashier casts for the 4th and 5th slots here. Ultimately, I do think timing will help Don’t Look Up, with voters streaming it on Netflix just as ballots are being sent in. Not to be counted out are King Richard and Mass, the latter of which should be a shoo-in here but has the misfortune of a distributor that’s rarely had much luck striking awards season gold.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
   —

6. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

7. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

8. Emilia Jones, CODA

9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

10. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Stewart’s a sure bet and Colman/Kidman/Gaga strike me as solid too, albeit perhaps on a second tier. That fifth slot, though, is a toughie. Hudson has barely had a presence this awards season but early releases (like Respect) have a tendency to surface at SAG - a pattern that perhaps helps the likes of Chastain and Jones, too. Haim and Zegler could ride their films’ momentum to nominations and Cruz scored a trio of SAG noms to go along with all three career Oscar bids. My gut says Hudson might just be this year’s “what the?” SAG nominee but it’s such a close call.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

2. Will Smith, King Richard

3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
   —

6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

7. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

8. Nicolas Cage, Pig

9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon

10. Mahershala Ali, Swan Song

Again, I feel most of the suspense here lies in the fifth slot, with Cumberbatch & Smith safe in their spots and Garfield & Washington in reasonably comfortable positions right behind them. Dinklage has surfaced in this category before (for The Station Agent) and I can oddly fathom Bardem making the cut, even if he’s rarely cited as an MVP of Being the Ricardos. But my gut says it’s DiCaprio who ekes it out. He rarely misses at SAG when in awards contention, even making the cut for J. Edgar, and his notices for Don’t Look Up have been generally strong, even from critics of the picture itself.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story
   —

6. Judi Dench, Belfast

7. Marlee Matlin, CODA

8. Ruth Negga, Passing

9. Ann Dowd, Mass

10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

Dunst, DeBose and Ellis look solid for nominations and odds are Balfe makes it too, even if she hasn’t had the formidable run many expected earlier in the season. Moreno is the quintessential SAG Best Supporting Actress nominee, a legendary veteran along the lines of Gwen Verdon (Marvin’s Room), Cloris Leachman (Spanglish) and Ruby Dee (American Gangster) who’s within striking distance of an Oscar nom but hardly a sure thing. I suspect she makes it but it’s just as easy to fathom Dench or Matlin making the cut if SAG falls especially hard for one of their pictures - and if Mass can somehow score Best Ensemble honors, Dowd may be along for the ride as a solo nominee. In a perfect world, both Negga and Tessa Thompson would be nominees everywhere for Passing but I’m not getting my hopes up.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

2. Troy Kotsur, CODA

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast

5. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
   —

6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

7. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

9. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

10. Jon Bernthal, King Richard

Not to sound like a broken record but…watch that fifth slot lol. Smit-McPhee, Kotsur, Hinds and Dornan should all be in good shape both here and on Oscar noms morning, barring Belfast losing momentum as the season progresses (which is plausible). My sense is Simmons takes the fifth slot, both here and at the Oscars, as a sort of “welcome back!” nod. It could be Leto but if the Globes wouldn’t embrace his divisive House of Gucci turn, I’m a little skeptical SAG and/or AMPAS will bite. Cooper’s been mostly absent from the precursors, The Tender Bar looks poised to arrive without much fanfare and Plemons (who is fantastic) has been completely overshadowed by his co-star. Bet on Simmons but prepare for the possibility of Leto.

2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions (January)

Oh hi. :)

It was an eventful December in the awards season as an onslaught of critics’ groups, among them the Critics Choice Awards, announced their rosters of honorees. The Power of the Dog most made a killing among these precursors, but it was a robust month too for the likes of Drive My Car and Licorice Pizza, plus acting contenders like Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer).

Ultimately, however, did these awards provide heaps of clarity as to who is favored to take home Oscars? Not so much.

While The Power of the Dog may indeed have racked up a plethora of wins among the critics’ groups, it remains to be seen whether this slow burn will continue its momentum into the new year, as guild awards have their say. No doubt, it will rack up a healthy stack of nominations over the coming month and once the Oscars announce in February. It’s entirely plausible, however, that other contenders, the likes of Belfast, Licorice Pizza and West Side Story - perhaps even a dark horse like CODA, too (I’m looking at you, SAG) - make a comparable or greater connection in terms of wins. (That said, Jane Campion sure does look formidable in Best Director.)

The acting categories are tougher than ever to figure out.

Stewart continues to look like the Best Actress favorite, albeit a soft one at that. What’s helping her is the lack of a clear alternative. Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) looked like that formidable opponent until reviews for her film proved more lukewarm than expected. Instead, it may be Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) who most puts up a fight, especially if her film can land in Best Picture, which seems a more plausible feat than Spencer making the cut.

Speaking of soft front-runners, it’s arguable at this point whether Will Smith (King Richard) is really a favorite at all in Best Actor. With Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) faring exceedingly well among the critics’ prizes, this race for now feels like a barn burner between these two contenders.

Over in the Supporting fields, DeBose is looking awfully strong for Best Supporting Actress honors, though Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) and Catriona Balfe (Belfast) are not to be counted out, especially if AMPAS goes gaga for one of their films.

Best Supporting Actor has seen Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) clean up the bulk of critics’ prizes but I hesitate to label his exceedingly understated turn as a heavy favorite. If AMPAS falls head over heels for CODA, it’s easy to fathom Troy Kotsur emerging triumphant. Likewise, if they adore Belfast, Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan may be in play. And if Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) manages to make the cut, we’re all in for the “is this his time?!” conversation.

Down the ballot, you’ll of course see heaps of Belfast, Dune, The Power of the Dog and West Side Story and, with AMPAS announcing its shortlists for the year, I’m taking a stab at the trio of shorts categories for the first time this season.

Without further ado, here they are - updated predictions for the month of January, from most to least likely to earn a nomination. In countless cases, a contender has moved up or down from my December forecast - or dropped from its category entirely. Expect one final update in early February, just prior to Oscar nominations morning.

Bon appétit!

Best Picture

1. The Power of the Dog (+1)

2. West Side Story (+4)

3. Belfast (-2)

4. Licorice Pizza (-)

5. Dune (-2)

6. CODA (+2)

7. King Richard (-2)

8. tick, tick…BOOM! (NEW)

9. Don’t Look Up (-2)

10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (-)
    —

11. The Lost Daughter (+3)

12. Nightmare Alley (-1)

13. Being the Ricardos (-1)

14. Spider-Man: No Way Home (NEW)

15. Drive My Car (NEW)

DROPPED
C’mon C’mon (-6)
House of Gucci (-3)
Spencer (-1)

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (+4)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (-1)

4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (-)

5. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (NEW)
   —

6. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-3)

7. Siân Heder, CODA (NEW)

8. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (NEW)

9. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (-2)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (-2)

DROPPED
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (-6)
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-2)
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (-1)

Best Actress

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (-)

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (+2)

3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (+4)

4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (-2)

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (-)
   —

6. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (+4)

7. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (+1)

8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (NEW)

9. Emilia Jones, CODA (NEW)

10. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (-4)

DROPPED
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-8)
Tessa Thompson, Passing (-2)

Best Actor

1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (+2)

2. Will Smith, King Richard (-1)

3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-1)

4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM! (+2)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (-)

   —

6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon (-2)

7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (NEW)

8. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (-)

9. Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza (-)

10. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (-3)

DROPPED
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (+6)

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (+2)

4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (-2)

5. Judi Dench, Belfast (-2)
   —

6. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (+1)

7. Ruth Negga, Passing (+2)

8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (-4)

9. Ann Dowd, Mass (+1)

10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (-4)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (NEW)

2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (+5)

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (-)

4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (-3)

5. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (+4)
   —

6. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (-2)

7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (-5)

8. Mike Faist, West Side Story (NEW)

9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (NEW)

DROPPED
Richard Jenkins, The Humans (-6)
Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon (-4)
Jon Bernthal, King Richard (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (+1)

2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-1)

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up (-)

4. Zach Baylin, King Richard (+2)

5. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch (+3)
   —

6. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon (-2)

7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (-2)

8. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos (-1)

9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-)

10. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (-)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Tony Kushner, West Side Story (+3)

3. Sian Heder, CODA (-1)

4. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car (+3)
   —

6. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)

7. Steven Levenson, tick, tick... BOOM! (NEW)

8. Rebecca Hall, Passing (-2)

9. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune (-2)

10. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley (-)

DROPPED
Stephen Karam, The Humans (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto (-)

2. Flee (+1)

3. Luca (-1)

4. Raya and the Last Dragon (-)

5. Belle (-)
   —

6. Vivo (-)

7. The Summit of the Gods (-)

8. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (-)

9. Sing 2 (NEW)

10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (-1)

DROPPED
Where Is Anne Frank (-1)

Best Animated Short Film

1. Affairs of the Art

2. Bestia

3. Mum Is Pouring Rain

4. Step into the River

5. The Musician
   —

6. Namoo

7. The Windshield Wiper

8. Us Again

9. Robin Robin

10. Souvenir Souvenir

Best Documentary Feature

1. Flee (+1)

2. Summer Of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (+4)

3. The Rescue (-1)

4. The First Wave (+3)

5. Faya Dayi (-2)
   —

6. Writing with Fire (NEW)

7. Simple as Water (NEW)

8. Procession (-)

9. Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (NEW)

10. Attica (-1)

DROPPED
The Lost Leonardo (-7)
Becoming Cousteau (-6)
Ailey (-1)

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Águilas

2. Three Songs for Benazir

3. A Broken House

4. Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day”

5. Sophie & the Baron
   —

6. Lead Me Home

7. Day of Rage

8. Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis

9. The Queen of Basketball

10. The Facility

Best International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan) (+3)

2. Flee (Denmark) (-)

3. A Hero (Iran) (-2)

4. The Hand of God (Italy) (-1)

5. The Worst Person in the World (Norway) (-)
   —

6. Compartment No. 6 (Finland) (-)

7. I’m Your Man (Germany) (+3)

8. Lamb (Iceland) (NEW)

9. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) (-1)

10. Playground (Belgium) (NEW)

DROPPED
Titane (France) (-4)
Memoria (Colombia) (-2)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Criminals

2. Les Grandes Claques

3. Frimas

4. Stenofonen

5. You’re Dead Hélène
   —

6. The Long Goodbye

7. Censor of Dreams

8. The Dress

9. Distances

10. Under the Heavens

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune (-)

2. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog (+1)

3. Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story (+2)

4. Haris Zambarloukos, Belfast (-2)

5. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-1)
   —

6. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley (-)

7. Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman, Licorice Pizza (+1)

8. Claire Mithon, Spencer (+1)

9. Robert Yeoman, The French Dispatch (-2)

10. Eduard Grau, Passing (-)

Best Costume Design

1. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story (+3)

2. Janty Yates, House of Gucci (-1)

3. Jacqueline Durran, Spencer (-)

4. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley (+1)

5. Jenny Beavan, Cruella (-3)
   —

6. Jacqueline West, Dune (-)

7. Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch (-)

8. Massimo Cantini Parrini, Cyrano (-)

9. Susan Lyall, Being the Ricardos (-)

10. Kirsty Cameron, The Power of the Dog (NEW)

DROPPED
Michael O’Connor, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (-1)

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune (-)

2. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog (-)

3. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, West Side Story (+3)

4. Andy Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza (+1)

5. Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, Belfast (-2)
   —

6. Tom Cross and Elliot Graham, No Time to Die (+4)

7. Pamela Martin, King Richard (-)

8. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up (-4)

9. Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM! (NEW)

10. Geraud Brisson, CODA (NEW)

DROPPED
Joseph Jett Sally, The Matrix Resurrections (-3)
Cam McLauchlin, Nightmare Alley (-2)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Jana Carboni, Giuliano Mariano and Göran Lundström, House of Gucci (-)

2. Cliona Furey and Jo-Ann MacNeil, Nightmare Alley (+5)

3. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (+2)

4. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune (-1)

5. Nadia Stacey and Carolyn Cousins, Cruella (+3)
   —

6. Heba Thorisdottir and Janine Thompson, The Suicide Squad (+2)

7. Vera Steimberg, Merc Arceneaux, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America (NEW)

8. Judy Chin and Kay Georgiou, West Side Story (NEW)

9. Sian Miller and Alessandro Bertolazzi, Cyrano (NEW)

10. Daniel Phillips, No Time to Die (NEW)

DROPPED
Frances Hannon, The French Dispatch (-7)
Teresa Hill and Ana Lozano, Being the Ricardos (-4)
The team from Spencer (-2)
Vickie Lang, Annette Field and Donald McInnes, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (-1)

Best Original Score

1. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog (+1)

2. Hans Zimmer, Dune (-1)

3. Jonny Greenwood, Spencer (+1)

4. Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch (+1)

5. Germaine Franco, Encanto (NEW)
   —

6. Carter Burwell, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+1)

7. Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers (NEW)

8. Daniel Pemberton, Being the Ricardos (+1)

9. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up (-3)

10. Kris Bowers, King Richard (-)

DROPPED
Nathan Johnson, Nightmare Alley (-7)
The National, Cyrano (-3)

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die (-)

2. “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto (NEW)

3. “Down to Joy,” Belfast (+1)

4. “Be Alive,” King Richard (-1)

5. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home),” Respect (-)
   —

6. “Beyond the Shore,” CODA (-)

7. “So May We Start,” Annette (NEW)

8. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days (+2)

9. “Just Look Up,” Don’t Look Up (NEW)

10. “Right Where I Belong,” Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road (NEW)

DROPPED
“Colombia, Mi Encanto,” Encanto (-9)
“At the Automat,” The Automat (-4)
“Every Letter,” Cyrano (-3)
“Guns Go Bang,” The Harder They Fall (-2)

Best Production Design

1. Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune (-)

2. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story (+2)

3. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley (-)

4. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog (+3)

5. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch (-3)
   —

6. Arthur Max and Letizia Santucci, House of Gucci (-1)

7. Guy Hendrix-Dyas and Yesim Zolan, Spencer (+1)

8. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+1)

9. Jon Hutman and Ellen Brill, Being the Ricardos (-3)

10. Jim Clay and Claire Nia Richards, Belfast (-)

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune (-)

2. Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Tod Maitland and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story (-)

3. Robert Mackenzie, Richard Flynn, Leah Katz, Tara Webb and Dave Whitehead, The Power of the Dog (NEW)

4. Willie Burton, Kevin O’Connell, Tony Lambert, Steven Ticknor and Vanessa Lapato, Spider-Man: No Way Home (NEW)

5. Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney and Paul Massey, No Time to Die (+4)
   —

6. Paul Hsu and Todd A. Maitland, tick, tick...BOOM! (NEW)

7. Simon Chase, James Mather, Denise Yarde and Niv Adris, Belfast (-4)

8. Ethan Van Der Ryn, Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky and Brandon Proctor, A Quiet Place Part II (-2)

9. Barry O’Sullivan, Dana A. Davis, Stephanie Flack, Matthias Lempert and Lars Ginzel, The Matrix Resurrections (-6)

10. Julian Slater, Dan Morgan, Colin Nicolson, Tim Cavagin, Last Night in Soho (NEW)

DROPPED
Oliver Tarney, Paul Massey, David Giammarco, William Miller, Daniel Birch and Stéphanie Bucher, The Last Duel (-6)
Jared Detsikes, Martin Pinsonnault, Stéphane Bergeron and Alexandra Fehrman, CODA (-4)
Nathan Robitaille, Jill Purdy, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Greg Chapman, Nightmare Alley (-3)
The team from Don’t Look Up (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune (-)

2. Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home (+1)

3. Dan Glass, Huw J Evans, Tom Debenham and J.D. Schwalm, The Matrix Resurrections (-1)

4. Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Walker, Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (-)

5. Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy (+1)
   —

6. Charlie Noble and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die (+3)

7. Stephane Ceretti, Daniele Bigi, Matt Aitken and Neil Corbould, Eternals (+3)

8. John Desjardin, Bryan Hirota, Kevin Smith and Mike Meinardus, Godzilla vs. Kong (NEW)

9. Alessandro Ongaro, Sheena Duggal, Aharon Bourland and Pier Lefebvre, Ghostbusters: Afterlife (NEW)

10. Geoffrey Baumann, Dave Hodgins, Craig Hammack and Paul Corbould, Black Widow (NEW)

DROPPED
The team from Finch (-6)
The team from Nightmare Alley (-4)
The team from Don’t Look Up (-3)